Bidens America is confused, and so is the world

Joe Biden Update

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No, the Western Alliance will not disintegrate. The United States will not fall into the illusion of isolationism. Afghanistan is too marginalized to trigger such a dramatic change. But the chaotic nature of the U.S. withdrawal, and the slight feelings of most of its allies, brought President Joe Biden’s international honeymoon to an abrupt end. It also throws the world-and much of Washington-into chaos. What does Biden mean by “America is back”? Which United States is he referring to?

The answer is not obvious. Biden’s Afghan troop withdrawal fulfilled one promise to get rid of “eternal war” and broke another promise, restoring the primacy of the American alliance. The second promise is the obvious difference between Biden and Donald Trump. Biden allegedly values ​​allies. Europe’s chagrin is that if Biden had negotiated closely with them on exiting Afghanistan, he could have fulfilled these two oaths. He chose not to. The fact that NATO was there at the request of the United States sprinkled salt on the wound. The 9/11 attacks marked the only time NATO has invoked its fifth joint defense clause — after it attacked the United States instead of Europe.

Europe is used to being left out, sometimes for granted, sometimes not. In 1956, Dwight Eisenhower (Dwight Eisenhower) rightly applied American economic pressure on Britain and France, forcing them to end the Suez Canal adventure. In 2003, George W. Bush ignored the opposition of France and Germany to his plans to invade Iraq. Lyndon Johnson may pay more attention to Harold Wilson. He kept Britain away from the Vietnam War. This is the only time that Britain has not fought alongside the United States in a serious war. Whether they are right or wrong, Europeans have enough commitment to the American League to survive when seen as a stimulus. The transatlantic world is ultimately held together by common interests.

However, without strategy, the West cannot continue indefinitely. The solution lies mainly in the United States. Biden has not yet decided on a clear foreign policy after eight months of his presidency. His campaign slogans were “restoring the alliance”, “promoting democracy”, pursuing a “middle-class foreign policy” and paying attention to China’s power in the Indo-Pacific region. All of this, especially the end of the “eternal war”, sounds good to most Westerners. But they will not add to each other. Governance is choice, and Biden is not yet in place.

The tension between Biden’s wishes reached its peak in China. Just like Afghanistan, China has no substance to distinguish Biden from Trump. Biden retained the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. In terms of 5G, he asked global partners to choose between Huawei and alternatives that have not yet been specified. Biden’s reason for withdrawing from Afghanistan was to concentrate US resources in the Indo-Pacific region.

This will be news to India, and India will become the biggest check and balance of the United States against China. With the Taliban taking over Afghanistan, now a vassal state of Islamabad, India’s eternal rival Pakistan has just become stronger. China also got a shot in the arm, not only because Pakistan is its close ally. Xi Jinping’s “One Belt One Road” initiative was launched in 2013 in Kazakhstan, the largest country in Central Asia. The biggest deficiency of Xi Jinping in the region is Afghanistan. There are signs that the Taliban will approve China’s investment in infrastructure and mining in exchange for a shelter for Uyghur separatists fighting China’s repression in Xinjiang.

Biden has taken a big step towards ending the “eternal war” of the United States. But judging from these foreseeable consequences, how will Afghanistan’s withdrawal help Biden’s other goals, such as containing China and promoting democracy? The answer is vague. In the next few weeks, Biden will face pressure to prove that his actions in Afghanistan are correct by taking stronger actions against China. His instinct is to resist.

Biden’s real priority is to pass his domestic fiscal bill before next year’s mid-term elections to stimulate the US middle-class economy. If you remove the word “foreign”, it may be the true meaning of what Biden said about middle-class foreign policy.

From anywhere in the United States, the difference between Biden and Trump is obvious. But the further you are from the coast of the United States, the narrower they become. This brings us back to “America is back.” The Democratic Party is back, but how long it will last is an open question. Most American friends strongly like the Democratic Party rather than Trumpism. But they are still not sure what this means for America’s role in the world. Suspicion may be a good suspicion, but the United States does not know it.

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