Will François Legault’s support for the Conservatives move the needle in Quebec?

In the winter of 1958, Maurice Duplessis, all-powerful premier of Quebec since 1944, decided to place his formidable political organization at the service of the minority federal government led by John Diefenbaker, a unilingual Conservative premier of Saskatchewan.

The result of this startling decision stunned the nation. On March 31, 1958, the Diefenbaker Conservatives swept the country, including the province of Quebec, where they elected 50 MPs (out of 75 seats), an increase of 41. The Liberals, who had dominated federal politics in the province since the days of Wilfrid Laurier, have been reduced to 25 seats.

Duplessis biographer Conrad Black wrote: “It was out of this mix of vengeance, autonomist ambition and straight-line partisanship that the Duplessis-Diefenbaker alliance was born. Could similar reasons explain the unexpected support for the Conservative Party given by Quebec Premier François Legault last week? Legault described the Green, New Democrat and Liberal programs as “dangerous”, while “for the Quebec nation, Mr. O’Toole’s approach is the right one”.

Is this “revenge” against Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau? It’s unclear what a grudge Legault holds against his federal counterpart, but it has been clear for months that something is wrong with the relationship, even though the two prime ministers recently agreed to a federal transfer of 6 billion dollars for the Quebec child care program. .

Could Legault’s extraordinary intervention in the federal campaign be explained by “pure and simple partisanship”? There have always been links between Legault’s party – the Coalition Avenir Québec – and the Tories. Some conservative organizers are also caquists. Gérard Deltell, the star of the Conservative caucus in Quebec, was a prominent member of the CAQ in the National Assembly of Quebec. But there are many more (former?) Separatists in François Legault’s government than conservatives.

François Legault is a convinced nationalist. The more power he can repatriate from Ottawa, the better. This is his “autonomist ambition”. For that, it needs a weak federal government. This means a regionalist government, ready to transfer to Quebec at least part of the powers demanded by the nationalists, and also a minority government, dependent on the Bloc Québécois.

What will be the effect of Legault’s coming out? We are not in 1958, when a powerful premier could tell the people of the province how to vote. But François Legault is extraordinarily popular in the province. Moreover, Legault and his team take the pulse of the Quebec Francophonie. They are incredibly good at sensing what the citizens of the province are feeling. The Prime Minister would not have publicly shared his electoral preference if he had not sensed that something was happening and had the opportunity to play the role of kingmaker in Ottawa.

During a press conference Friday afternoon, the Prime Minister seemed to go back a little on his “approval”. He avoided naming a federal party. But he insisted once again that three of the parties on the ballot are a threat to the autonomy of Quebec, leaving only the Conservatives and the Bloc.

Meanwhile, another uniquely Canadian controversy erupted during Thursday’s Anglophone leaders’ debate, a controversy that has since monopolized the province’s news cycle. Legault called this an attack on the Quebec nation.

Opening the debate, the moderator, Shachi Kurl, said that Quebec’s laws on religious symbols and language were “discriminatory”, even suggesting that they were “racist”. This “question” in editorial form caused a wave of indignation in Quebec, to the point that it perhaps erased the effects of Legault’s previous intervention. We know that when francophones in the province feel threatened or insulted, they tend to group together behind the most nationalist party.

Like other Canadians, Quebeckers began voting last Friday. It would not be surprising if thousands of these early ballots went to the Bloc Québécois. But what about O’Toole’s curators – will they benefit from Francois Legault’s compliments? It is impossible to say at this point.

However, one thing is becoming clearer day by day: the Liberals will not succeed in securing the majority they hold dear by winning additional seats in Quebec.