Cop26 climate deal will be more difficult than Paris deal, admits Sharma | Cop26

“What we’re trying to do here in Glasgow is actually very difficult,” he said. “It was great what they did in Paris, it was a framework agreement, [but] many detailed rules have been left for the future.

“It’s like we’ve come to the end of the exam copy and the hardest questions are left and you run out of time, the exam is over in half an hour and you’re like, ‘How are we we answer that a? ‘”

Preparations for Cop26, which opens Sunday, October 31 after being postponed for a year, have been hampered by the Covid-19 pandemic. More than 120 world leaders and at least 25,000 delegates are expected to attend, with vaccines, tests and quarantine arrangements for which will be a big logistical challenge.

“It’s definitely more difficult than Paris on many levels,” said Sharma, who took charge of the summit in February 2020, weeks before the first lockdown. “[But] what we have for us is that there is an understanding that we have to face this [climate crisis]. “

In August, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, made up of the world’s leading climatologists, issued its strongest warning yet of an “irreversible” climate catastrophe. “The IPCC report, while very alarming, was very helpful in helping to focus minds,” Sharma said. “The question is whether or not the Glasgow countries are ready to move forward and commit to consensus on keeping 1.5C alive – that is where the challenge will be.”

Under the Paris agreement, 197 countries agreed to limit global heating to “well below” 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels and to “continue efforts” to stay below 1.5 ° C. vs. But the commitments they made, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), were insufficient and would lead to a catastrophic increase of 3C, while new scientific advice strengthened the case for the lower limit of 1.5C. .

The agreement contains a ratchet mechanism forcing governments to return to the negotiating table every five years with more ambitious plans, a timeline extended until this year by the postponement of Cop26 by Covid-19.

Prospects for the talks were boosted this week as the UK government unveiled its long-awaited net zero strategy, aimed at generating $ 90 billion in investment and 440,000 green jobs this decade. While the strategy has been criticized by some environmental activists for loopholes and insufficient funding, the existence of a substantial plan was vital to the credibility of hosts during the talks.

Measuring national climate plans of all countries against the 1.5C target would be a key part of Cop26, said Sharma. “It’s going to be a big request. What we’re potentially telling countries is that if your NDC isn’t good enough, you’ll have to come back to the table. This is something that we must try to correct over the next few years.

He warned that the world would severely judge any country deemed to undermine the chances of achieving the 1.5C target. “What no one will want at the end of this process is to be pointed out: ‘You, country A, B, C or D, were the ones who ultimately made sure that Glasgow did not have been considered to produce a result. ‘”

But Glasgow was not the last chance to reach the 1.5C target, he added. Countries could further strengthen their commitments in the years to come. “If there is a gap, and there may well be a gap between [NDCs] and where you need to be in terms of 1.5C, we need to find a way to bridge that gap. “

Geopolitics have also changed dramatically in the six years since the Paris talks, with relations between the United States and China now at an all-time low. “The stars may have been aligned differently when entering Paris,” concedes Sharma.

Sharma said he is still waiting for an NDC from China, the world’s largest transmitter. “They signed the communiqué in July that we negotiated in Naples, that the whole G20 would come up with improved NDCs before the COP – I reminded them that they had to achieve this.”

There have been questions about China’s commitment to climate action, as the government has signaled it may increase coal production in response to high energy prices.

Chinese experts played down those fears, pointing to the increase in renewable energy production in the country, but doubts remain as to whether China will stick to a relatively unambitious target of peaking emissions. by 2030, which scientists fear is too late to allow the world to stick to it. at 1.5C.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian Vladimir Putin will almost certainly miss the talks, even though Joe Biden of the United States will be there “with the bells on”. The UK and the UN have downplayed the importance of absences, as countries will always have high-level negotiating teams.

As the president of the Cop, the UK must act as a broker and arbiter in the talks rather than a major player. But while remaining neutral, Sharma will insist that the voice of small countries be heard. “I consider myself a champion of developing countries and climate vulnerable countries [countries]. Some of them will be underwater at 1.5 ° C, ”he said.

“All of these people are pretty adamant that what needs to emerge from Glasgow is that we can say we’ve kept 1.5 alive.”

In the long term, the direction of the journey for the world is clear, he added. “If someone says to me, ‘Do you think we’ll ever get to the point where we have a net zero global economy? “, My answer is” Yes, I’m pretty sure we will. The problem is, will it be fast enough to tackle the challenges we are facing right now? “