Threats and low expectations cloud start of US-Russia talks on Ukraine

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The United States and Russia concluded high-stakes security talks on Monday as part of a diplomatic effort to defuse rising tensions over a Russian military build-up on its border with Ukraine.

A breakthrough had seemed unlikely in the talks, which ended after around seven hours, with threats from Moscow and low expectations on both sides clouding the possibility of ending fears that Russia was considering invading its neighbor.

Amid a wave of diplomatic activity in Europe this week, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met face-to-face with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov at the US diplomatic mission in Geneva.

“If Russia stays at the table and takes concrete steps to defuse the tensions, we believe we can make progress,” Sherman told reporters afterwards. “But if Russia moves away from the diplomatic track, it may well have never been serious about pursuing diplomacy.”

In a separate press conference, Ryabkov said: “We believe in a balance of power, a balance of interests. It is possible here. We have laid out the points on which we cannot back down.”

However, the biggest point of difference remained Ukraine and NATO: Russia wants it to never be able to join the alliance; the United States says he’s a non-starter.

While Ryabkov said “it is absolutely mandatory to ensure that Ukraine never, ever becomes a member of NATO,” Sherman has made it clear that the United States and its allies “will not allow anyone to slam NATO’s open door policy “.

“The talks promise to be long and substantial,” tweeted the Russian diplomatic mission in Geneva, with a photo of the two main negotiators standing in front of their national flags. Denis Balibouse / AP

Russian officials are expected to hold more talks with NATO and European officials later this week. They come after Russian President Vladimir Putin says the ball is in their court for the West to respond to a list of demands issued last month by the Kremlin that would dramatically reshape Europe’s security landscape and which have been largely rejected by Washington and the military alliance.

The United States will listen to Russia’s concerns and share ours, but we have made it clear that we will not discuss European security without our allies and partners, Sherman said in a tweet before talks began on Monday morning.

After an informal working dinner on Sunday, Ryabkov described the meeting with Sherman as difficult but pragmatic, Russian news agency Interfax reported.

He said on Monday that it was the turn of the United States and NATO to show flexibility, as Russia has done for the past 30 years, according to Russian news agency RIA Novosti.

If they don’t, “they will face a worsening situation in their own safe harbor,” Ryabkov said.

Ryabkov also told RIA that Russia would not deviate from its demands during the talks and that “the US side should instead be prepared for compromises.”

Neither US President Joe Biden nor his Russian counterpart will participate directly in the talks.

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Speaking to the RIA on Sunday, Ryabkov said Russia would not make concessions if the United States pressured and argued with Russia under a regime of threats.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also downplayed expectations that the talks could lead to real solutions.

I don’t think we’re going to see any breakthroughs next week, Blinken said in an interview with ABCs This Week on Sunday.

He warned that Russia would face massive economic, financial and other consequences from the United States and its allies if Moscow renewed its aggression.

But Blinken also gave an overview of what the United States plans to bring, including limits on troop exercises and other “confidence-building” measures.

In a separate interview with CNN State of the Union, Blinken said it was difficult to make progress when Russia has “a gun to Ukraine’s head.”

So if we were going to make any real progress, we were going to have to witness a de-escalation as Russia retreated from the threat it currently poses to Ukraine, the secretary of state added.

War in eastern Ukraine between the country’s military and Russian-backed separatists has left 14,000 dead.Anatolii Stepanov / AFP – Getty Images

Russia has amassed around 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, raising fears in Kiev and the West of an imminent invasion. Moscow has firmly denied that it intends to attack its neighbor.

Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, drawing condemnation and sanctions from the West. Soon after, Moscow backed a separatist rebellion in the east of the country, where fighting left more than 14,000 dead and devastated Ukraine’s industrial heart.

The Kremlin has demanded a series of concessions from the United States and its allies, including guarantees that NATO will no longer expand eastward into former Soviet states like Ukraine and that the United States will cancel its military deployments in the region.

The Biden administration has repeatedly threatened sanctions and other harsh measures if Russia takes new military action.

On Saturday, he issued strong new warnings, including measures that could have crushing costs to the Russian economy, The Associated Press reported, citing US officials.

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