Repression in Kazakhstan is a terrible formula for authoritarians

Kazakhstan begins 2022 in a deep crisis as mass demonstrations threaten to overthrow the government of President Kassim-Jomart Tokayev. The hot spot appears to be fading as the Russian-led forces of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) quell dissent across the country. Tokayev also appears to be purging key security officials loyal to his predecessor, longtime ruler Nursultan Nazarbayev. But the crisis heralds potentially dramatic changes in the region, especially for Russia and China, and could herald the viability of a new Russia-China partnership in the future.

Since independence from the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan has straddled the divide between Russia and China, maintaining friendly relations with Russia and China, being sensitive to Russia’s concerns, but ignoring Moscow’s views and insisting on pursuing independence in pursuit of its core interests.

Things may have changed.Kazakh President Tokayev’s decision to quell this month’s protests, which began as a gas dispute but quickly turned into a challenge to the government’s legitimacy by pleading with the Russian president Vladimir PutinVladimir Vladimirovich Putin Iran announces naval exercises with Russia restore order.

Russian newspapers run fast headline News Said the West organised a colour revolution in Kazakhstan to distract from security talks with Russia over Ukraine. And rightfully so, since in any situation involving legitimate social grievances and civil unrest, Moscow’s messaging tends to be snooped.

Beijing’s response to this has implications for the Kazakh crisis core China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative has received substantial investment and serious Chinese influence in turn.Days after the unrest began, Chinese leader Xi Jinping Responding to Moscow’s claims The protests are the West’s color revolution in a phone call with Tokayev and offer to help when the CSTO operation begins.

The crisis in Kazakhstan appears to have created a unique and worrying formula for authoritarian partnership: popular dissent is violently suppressed, Russian power combined with Chinese capital, all in support of one leader, Moscow and Beijing Hopefully, this leader may prove to be more than inclusive.

This low-cost, high-impact formula has the potential to be applied elsewhere, but only to a limited extent. As detailed in an article by Dr. Harley Balzer, the emerging Sino-Russian axis does have limitations, and the link is not as deep as one might think. new Atlantic Council report.

One of the main tensions between Putin and Xi is the roles of their respective countries on the world stage. Russia wants to upend the system established in the decades after World War II, while China wants to be an integral force in shaping it.

Surprisingly, Russia-China relations are one-sided. in 2019 Meeting Putin said that today, we maintain a very deep and extensive relationship with China. We do not have this relationship with any other country. Xi Jinping retorted that Russia is not only our largest neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner, but also one of the most important and priority partners in cooperation in various fields. As Balzer points out, the semantic difference between not having this relationship with any other country and being one of the most important partners is crucial, especially since it plays a role in Russia and China’s economic relationship.

Beijing has consistently rejected Moscow’s efforts to forge stronger formal ties.China’s economic ties to Ukraine a big rift as U.S. trade war with China intensifies under president Donald TrumpDonald Trump’s disaster predictions for Democrats don’t guarantee midterm defeat Jan. 6, after texting “no more stolen election talk” to McEnany in Trump’s five-point plan Hannity’s recap of President Biden’s first year of border policy More, Beijing has massively increased food purchases from the “granary of Europe”. 2018-19, China it is said Nearly 80% of corn imports are purchased from Ukraine.This is an significant benefits Russia has waged kinetic, economic, and hybrid warfare against Ukraine over Ukraine’s economy and its role as a global agricultural power.

Another area where this relationship has proven shallower than expected is economic development. While Kazakhstan has become the linchpin of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, Russia’s attempts to lure Chinese investment into its underdeveloped regions have been unsuccessful. According to Balzer, China Investment Corporation has proven little interest, and where they do come in, the vast majority of the interest goes to Chinese companies engaged in agriculture, commodities and tourism. Moscow authorities tolerated China’s greedy activities in many regions, focusing on profits, while local residents suffered the consequences.

For the foreseeable future, Western policymakers will pay close attention to the relationship between Putin and Xi Jinping, just as they used to monitor the lineup of the Soviet funeral procession.

As Balzer has shown, the partnership is far from the comfortable and disastrous anti-American axis that critics fear. Still, crises like the brutal crackdown in Kazakhstan have shown that Moscow and Beijing can work together effectively under pressure and get the results they want. This is a formula we should expect them to repeat.

Doug Klain is Assistant Director of the Eurasian Center of the Atlantic Council.follow him on twitter @DougKlain.