Taiwan says Xi Jinping may seek to take control in next five years

The US State Department said on Wednesday (Thursday AEST) that such incursions were an attempt by Beijing to permanently alter the status quo, which was unacceptable.

The latest incident was also another demonstration of its overreaction to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosis visit last month, said John Kirby, National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications at the State Department.

what [the State Department] has seen right before the speakers visit, during that visit and after that visit is a clear attempt by the Chinese to permanently alter the status quo in and around Taiwan, Mr Kirby said.

Weve been very clear publicly that changing the status quo is unacceptable, he said.

The US Navy sent two warships into the Taiwan Strait on Sunday in the first such transit of the waterway since Ms Pelosis visit intensified US-China tensions.

Taipei is closely watching Chinas economic challenges, fuelled by COVID-19 lockdowns and a property crisis, because of fears that additional domestic political pressure on Mr Xi in his third five-year term as leader, due to officially begin next month, could prompt him to move on Taiwan sooner rather than later.

After the 20th Party Congress, he [Xi] will face a lot of challenges in his governance. So in the next five years Taiwan might attempt to undermine the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and generate great risks in the region, said Chiu Chui-Cheng, Taiwans Mainland Affairs Council deputy minister.

Unifying with Taiwan is one of Xi Jinping’s three historical missions, so they might take risks to resolve this position, and they have frantic nationalism in the country right now.

Growing anxiety in Taiwan

He said the Chinese people would expect to see some progress on Mr Xis policies for reunifying Taiwan with mainland China when he sought a fourth term as leader in 2027. They need to see results on Taiwan in the next five years, he said.

Mr Chius comments reflect growing anxiety in Taiwan, as well as within the administration of US President Joe Biden, that Chinas unpredictable foreign policies under Mr Xi could trigger a confrontation in the Taiwan Strait.

Mr Xi, 69, is expected to be appointed leader for another five years at Chinas Communist Party five-yearly congress on October 16. While President Xis leadership looks secure for now, he will be under growing pressure in his next term as Chinas economic growth slows.

The Chinese public could also demand a clearer timetable on the reunification of Taiwan amid rising nationalism since the pandemic, fuelled by Chinese government propaganda.

Despite the recent drama, the Taiwanese remain calm. Government officials said they did not expect an imminent invasion by Beijing, but would be closely watching the political mood in China following next months Party Congress.

Of course we hope that it will never happen, Mr Chiu said.

US think tanks predict 2024 or 2027 or next year. We have been doing our upmost to lower the risks in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan has always been prepared, and we have to let China know if they try to annex Taiwan they will have to pay a very high price,

He was speaking to a delegation of journalists, including from The Australian Financial Reviewinvited to Taiwan for briefings focused on the islands bid to join The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

The Mainland Affairs Council is the Taiwan government branch that sets policies for dealing with China. Chiu Tai-san, the head of the council, is in the US this week for meetings in Washington.

He called on Australia and other democracies to support Taiwan. We need the democracies to work with us to deter Chinas military actions, he said.

His deputy said China would use other means besides military action to pressure Taiwan, such as legal documents, economic coercion and grey zone tactics. It would also step pressure on other countries not to support Taiwan.

Mr Chiu also said Taiwans presidential elections in 2024 could be an opportunity for China to take certain actions against Taiwan.

Business leaders in Taiwan said this week they saw no imminent threat from China, and would continue to do business with the worlds second-largest economy.

China will continue to be an important partner with us even though politically there might be some hardships, said Matthew Miau, chairman of the Chinese National Federation of Industries in Taiwan.

Recently, we are trying to establish more investment with other countries in South-East Asia and Latin America.

Michael Smith travelled to Taipei as a guest of the Taiwan government.