Understanding the Ups and Downs of US-Saudi Relations: QuickTake

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For more than seven decades, despite differences on human rights and the Arab-Israeli conflict, the US and Saudi Arabia maintained a close alliance based on an exchange of security for oil. Recently, that arrangement has been showing signs of stress. US President Joe Biden initially cooled relations over the 2018 murder of columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents. He worked to patch things up in July, in order to cajole the worlds largest crude exporter to ramp up output and thus nudge global oil prices down. But an early October decision by Saudi-led OPEC to cut back on production has put the relationship on even rockier footing than before.

1. Whats the history of US-Saudi ties?

In 1945, US President Franklin Roosevelt and Saudi Arabia founder King Abdulaziz ibn Saud held a historic meeting aboard the USS Quincy in the Suez Canal. They disagreed vehemently about the future of what was then British Mandatory Palestine, with the American supporting Israels establishment in part of it and the king opposed to a Jewish state in the Middle East. They nevertheless laid the groundwork for a strategic arrangement whereby the US provided security guarantees to Saudi rulers in exchange for access to the kingdoms vast oil reserves. Over the years the US complained, but not loudly, about the constraints on civil rights and the unequal treatment of women and minority Shiite Muslims in the kingdom. Ties occasionally veered off course. In 1973, Saudi Arabia led an Arab oil boycott of the US and other countries that supported Israel in that years Arab-Israeli war, contributing to a recession in the West. Still, the relationship endured. It was deepened by Irans 1979 Islamic revolution, which overthrew a US-backed monarch in a country that rivals Saudi Arabia for regional dominance, and by Iraqs 1990 invasion of Kuwait, which borders Saudi Arabia.

2. Why did things sour between the US and Saudi Arabia?

The Sept. 11 attacks on the US, which were masterminded and mostly orchestrated by Saudi nationals, introduced a bitter note in 2001. More than that, a broader, structural change undermined the fundamentals of the relationship in recent years: The shale boom has made America the worlds largest producer of oil and thus less reliant on imports from the Middle East. At the same time, de facto Saudi leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has abandoned the kingdoms usual, cautious foreign policy in favor of an assertiveness thats made Saudi Arabia a vexing ally for the US. He launched a disruptive blockade of Qatar, which hosts the largest US military base in the region, and a devastating intervention in Yemens civil war. US intelligence assessed that he ordered the 2018 operation that ended with the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a critic of the Saudi government, inside the countrys consulate in Istanbul. The crown prince has denied any involvement in the killing while accepting symbolic responsibility for it as the country’s unofficial ruler.

Whereas US President Donald Trump had embraced Saudi Arabia, making it the first place he visited overseas after taking office in 2017, Biden took a different approach. During his campaign for the presidency, he vowed to make Saudi Arabia a global pariah over the murder of Khashoggi, who had been a US citizen and Washington Post columnist. Biden didnt actually go that far after taking office in 2021, but he did step back from the Saudis.

He released a report blaming Prince Mohammed for Khashoggis killing.

Unlike Trump, who met and spoke directly with Prince Mohammed, Biden shunned him. The White House said it was more appropriate for the president to deal with his counterpart, King Salman bin Abdulaziz, and relegated the crown prince, who is also the defense minister, to liaise with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. This was seen in the kingdom as insulting to the man who already effectively rules the country and will almost certainly become his next king.

Biden ended US support for Saudi Arabia offensive operations in Yemen, including related weapons transfers. The Saudi bombing campaign, aimed at dislodging Iran-backed Houthi rebels who took over Yemens capital and surrounding areas in 2014, has been widely criticized for disproportionately affecting civilians. Biden preserved assistance aimed at helping defend Saudi territory from Houthi attacks.

4. Why did Biden try to smooth things over?

Russias war in Ukraine caused oil prices — and thus gasoline costs for US consumers — to spike, creating a risk that voters will punish Bidens Democratic Party in congressional and state elections in November. So in July, the president swallowed his pride, flew to Saudi Arabia, and publicly met with Prince Mohammed in an effort to repair ties. The following month, Saudi Arabia responded with one of the smallest production hikes in OPECs six-decade history — just 100,000 barrels a day extra in September.

5. Why is OPEC cutting production now?

Officials from member countries defended the cuts as necessary to protect their own economies as well as the oil industry from the risk of a global economic slowdown. The Oct. 5 agreement among members of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, is to reduce collective output by 2 million barrels a day from November. Because many members already arent meeting their output targets, the actual oil supply will fall by only about half that amount. Still, its the biggest cut since 2020.

6. How has the US responded?

The Saudi decision infuriated Bidens team. In response, the US planned to release an additional 10 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in November to partially offset the reduction in OPECs output, and officials said theyd consider releasing more. White House officials threatened to consult with Congress on ways of reducing OPECs influence over oil prices. Members of Congress have called for a revival of a bill called the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act, known as NOPEC, that would empower the US Department of Justice to file an antitrust lawsuit against OPEC. Other lawmakers have suggested curtailing arms shipments to the Saudis. Both of those options, however, risked escalating tensions with the kingdom with unknown consequences.

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