OPINION | Xi Jinping’s Covid crisis is indeed an opportunity

The public discontent expressed in last month’s bold demonstrations against China’s coronavirus containment policies is the biggest domestic crisis President Xi Jinping has faced in his decade in power. His government quickly crushed the protests. It’s easy to see what’s happening now as a slow standoff between a restless populace and a stubbornly authoritarian government. But the relationship between the Communist Party and the Chinese people is far more complicated than that.

While cracking down on demonstrators, Xi Jinping’s government has largely bowed to their main demands, moving away from its unpopular zero-Covid strategy in a stunning response. More work is needed to put this episode behind us, but Xi Jinping now has the opportunity to rewrite the social contract that governs China — the implicit bargain in which the people acquiesce to autocracy in exchange for stability and prosperity.

He can learn from Deng Xiaoping and maximize the political potential of the crisis. After Mao’s death, Deng Xiaoping returned to power in the late 1970s, at a time when the Communist Party faced an existential crisis: Mao’s authoritarian rule impoverished China and destroyed the party. Deng seized the moment, abandoning Mao Zedong’s vision of a communist paradise in favor of political stability and improved living standards. Re-enacted the contract between the party and the people.

By the early 1990s, China’s ruling elite was again demoralized and directionless. The crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations in Beijing tarnished the party’s image in 1989, and the Soviet Union collapsed in December 1991. Mr. Deng turned crisis into opportunity again.Months after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the 87-year-old leader reinvigorated the party and breathe new life into market reform. The economic success of the ensuing decades reaffirmed the party’s Mandate of Heaven – the concept of divine sovereignty in the age of empires.

Deng Xiaoping had the advantage of taking advantage of the crisis in which others (Mao and the Soviet Union) were blamed.It won’t be easy for Xi to escape his heavily invested Covid policies political capital But it has strangled the economy and sparked rare street demonstrations. But he does have his strengths: During the Communist Party Congress in October, Mr. Xi won a third term and built his supporters among the party’s top ranks. Acknowledging major policy mistakes will not jeopardize his political survival.

Xi has a strategic window to move away not only from the zero-Covid policy, but also from a personal style of governance that once again jeopardizes engagement between the party and the people. Before Xi, this long-term contract required the party to appoint people on their merits and be administratively competent. Officials are promoted based on the economic performance of their cities and provinces, although channels for citizens to express their grievances remain limited. Lawyers, journalists, and activists enjoy more freedom to challenge local authorities that have misgoverned or abused their power.

Xi Jinping has turned his back on all of this. He inherited power a decade ago as the economy boomed but the ruling party was overshadowed by corruption and environmental damage. He has cracked down on these problems, prioritizing ideological allegiance over economic development and administrative capacity. political indoctrination Reminiscent of the Mao era, the government has become less friendly to the private sector. Fearing color revolutions in the name of democracy, Xi has imposed the toughest system of social control and censorship since Mao Zedong.

On the face of it, the protests in several cities in late November were aimed at harsh and arbitrary tactics such as lockdowns and ongoing Covid testing. But other serious public concerns have been building up over the years: a slowing economy, soaring youth unemployment, a crisis in the real estate sector, tightening social controls and the revival of Xi Jinping’s notorious communist ideology. Such discontent was expressed by a lone protester in October, who posted anti-Xi signs in Beijing on the eve of the party congress, with slogans such as “We don’t want the Cultural Revolution!” We want reform! Phrase used in street demonstrations for the next month.

It would be unwise for Xi to stick to his current ideological line of state-led economy and absolute regime security. If he does, the Chinese economy will almost certainly underperform. Officials obsessed with showing loyalty to him risk doubling down on ill-conceived policies that ignore the public opinion that fuels the demonstrations. Xi’s hard-line foreign policy will further alienate the West, and continued paranoia over hostile forces seeking to undermine China will further repress an already jaded public.

Instead, Xi Jinping should guide Deng Xiaoping. A good start would be a renewed focus on economic development, perhaps meeting with leading entrepreneurs, some of whom have been detained or sidelined or kept a low profile in recent years over Xi’s crackdown on the private sector.abolish paralyzing technology Regulation Sanctions imposed over the past two years would also send a positive signal.In fact, Mr. Xi proposed a ambitious blueprint He deepened economic reforms in his first year in office, calling on market forces rather than the state to lead development. Over the years, as his rhetoric and policies swung to the left, the reform agenda has rarely been implemented, but it is never too late and it needs to be done now.

Recent demonstrations have also made it clear that the government must be more sensitive.restore limited channels that allow the public to challenge President Xi’s policies almost all closed Will help the party achieve competent governance. The aspirations of members of China’s growing middle class may pose a long-term threat to one-party rule, but they prefer evolution to revolution. Yet government incompetence and apathy, as exemplified by Zero Covid, can radicalize them.

A return to Deng Xiaoping’s pragmatism is not credible unless Xi listens to other voices in the party. Before he came to power, the Communist Party practiced a collective decision-making system designed to balance the interests of its main factions. This often leads to paralysis. But it also helped the party avoid major policy blunders like zero Covid that came with one-man rule. Now in full power, Xi Jinping may find it unattractive to give up a little power. But he could still allow more decision-making consultations.

We don’t know if Xi Jinping thinks he needs to change course. But if he reads the recent protests correctly, he must realize that a renewed contract with the Chinese people may be crucial to preserving his own destiny.

Minxin Pei is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. He is the author of a forthcoming book, “Defending the Dictatorship: China’s Surveillance State.” His research focuses on state surveillance and corruption in China.

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