McManus: Democracy worldwide is healthier than alternatives

More than a decade ago, scholars began to point to a disturbing global trend: the decline of democracy. Dozens of countries are moving from democracy to authoritarianism.

The list of apostates spans the globe, from India and South Africa to Hungary, Poland, Mexico, and even, in recent years, the United States.

Freedom House, a nonprofit that rates countries based on electoral practices, civil liberties and other measures, reported that the world has become less democratic for 16 consecutive years.

Meanwhile, China’s authoritarian regime has been touting its one-party system as more efficient and dynamic than the tired old democracy.

But look again. Dictators have had a rough year.

In China, Xi Jinping’s draconian zero-COVID policy has slowed economic growth and sparked angry protests.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin has waged a disastrous war in Ukraine, prompting nearly a million young Russians to flee their country to avoid being drafted into the army.

In Iran, protests by young women over laws requiring the wearing of the hijab have mushroomed into a wider uprising demanding an end to the authoritarian Islamic regime.

Meanwhile, at least some of the world’s democracies appear to be finding the winds of recovery. Far-right parties lost in France and Germany, although they won in Italy and Sweden. Brazil’s autocratic president Jair Bolsonaro lost his job after holding a good national election; he challenged the result in court and lost again. In last month’s midterm elections, American voters sent a surprisingly clear message rejecting candidates whom former President Donald Trump denied the election.

So is the democratic recession over?

Sorry no. The academic who came up with the phrase, Larry Diamond of Stanford University, says it’s too soon to pop the champagne.

He told me that I don’t think the current protests in Iran, China or Russia will lead to a democratic breakthrough. I think it’s very common across the globe, and I see a lot of warning signs that people don’t pay attention to.

Freedom House President Michael Abramowitz agreed.

Democracy has not come back, he said. I think we’ll turn the corner at some point, but it hasn’t happened yet.

It is useful here to distinguish between two problems. One is the crisis of authoritarian regimes; the other is the health of the world’s democracies.

In China, Russia and Iran, they are experiencing the decline of authoritarian regimes, Diamond said.

These regimes, he said, have done a poor job of meeting people’s expectations. As a result, everyone is facing a crisis of legitimacy and belief in the regime’s right to govern has plummeted.

That doesn’t mean those governments are likely to fall: They all have decades of experience cracking down on dissent, now augmented by increasingly sophisticated surveillance techniques.

All three regimes have sought to appease disgruntled citizens in recent weeks. China has ended with zero COVID. Putin told the Russians there would soon be no more military calls. A senior Iranian official said the country’s widely hated morality police would be disbanded, but it was unclear whether the announcement had any real effect.

But none of them look like attractive models for others to follow.

Meanwhile, democracy is still struggling.

Diamond wrote that Mexico and India were under the control of authoritarian demagogues. Nigeria faces the prospect of partial state collapse. The hopes of African democracy are so dependent on South Africa, and things are not looking good.

That’s why, for democracy scholars, some of the best news this year comes from our own midterm elections.

Here’s a little D to test whether an anti-democratic candidate is anti-democratic; Abramowitz says “I’m not a partisan” will be able to preside over future elections.

He added that it was important that they lost decisively. This shows that civil society in the United States has been rejuvenated.

In an Associated Press survey, 44 percent of U.S. voters listed the future of democracy as one of their top concerns on Election Day, behind inflation and the economy.

A postelection survey by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan research group, found that the same number said protecting democracy would be the top issue in their selection of a 2024 presidential candidate.

Regardless, we’re not out of the woods yet, Abramowitz said. But I’m more hopeful than I was a year ago.

So we can be content with the misfortune of the world’s worst dictator. We can take heart for the evidence, however temporary, that democracy is still a self-correcting system.

But those battles are a long way from over. Making democracy work is a fight to be won.