First the United States, then Brazil. What is the next step ?

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There is something pathetic about the gangs of crazed supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro who stormed the Brazilian Congress building, presidential offices and the Supreme Court on Sunday. Congress wasn’t even in session. The mutineers were late: President Luiz Incio Lula da Silva had been sworn in a week earlier.

He wasn’t even in the capital that day, but in So Paulo, 600 miles away. If they hoped to overthrow democracy and prevent the peaceful transfer of power, the insurgents might have staged their insurrection on a day when democracy was at home. The editorial pages of Folha de So Paulo, the leading daily in Brazil’s economic hub, called the rebels, quite simply, a handful of idiots.

Despite the wanton futility of the insurrection, the outburst of violence to overthrow a settled election poses a real and ongoing threat, not just in Brazil. The popularity of street riots as a tool to undo democratic rule presents a disturbing challenge across the Americas, where support for democracy is at its lowest level in decades.

Two years after Donald Trump called on insurgents to storm Congress to prevent Joe Biden from assuming the presidency, the spread of the tactic also raises a question for the United States: the self-proclaimed champion of democracy may help quell the anti-democratic violence that his example helped spark? on the world ?

At the moment, the Brazilians can expire. The storming of the Praa dos Trs Poderes was extinguished by the police after a few hours. Lula has placed the capital under the jurisdiction of federal security forces and the Supreme Court has suspended the governor of the Federal District, an ally of Bolsonaro, while an investigation takes place on the evidence that the district police simply left the rebellion happen, even escorting protesters to the Congress building.

Pro-Bolsonaro protesters closed highways in several states, as they did after his election defeat last year. Some tried to block oil refineries. But the police forcefully push back. Above all, the armed forces did not join the efforts of the rebels. Indeed, they help to dismantle the encampments that the demonstrators had established in the military compounds of the capital and other cities.

Some commentators have suggested that the attempted coup will ultimately strengthen Lulas’s hand, weakening popular support for a far right that has been violent and undemocratic.

However, this interpretation seems too optimistic. Bolsonaro was elected even after celebrating the torture and death of his political enemies. In some ways, Brazil is even more polarized than the United States. Lula beat Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points. Biden beat Trump by almost five. If the American experience serves as a precedent, it will be extremely difficult for Lula to overcome the extreme polarization that cuts the Brazilian electorate in two and to bring the other half on board.

The insurgency in Brazil is occurring amid political unrest sweeping through its neighborhood. Peru is still convulsed following the dismissal by Congress of President Pedro Castillo from power. Chile’s leftist president Gabriel Boric, who only beat right winger Jose Antonio Kast after narrowly losing to him in the first round of voting, has yet to find his footing and is suffering from a strong decline in popularity.

Protests spread to Santa Cruz in Bolivia after President Luis Arce ordered the imprisonment of governor and political rival Luis Camacho. In Argentina, Vice President (and former President) Cristina Fernndez de Kirchner dropped out of the 2023 presidential election after being convicted of corruption. In Mexico, the opposition barely succeeded in blocking President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obradors’ attempt to dismantle the authority overseeing Mexico’s elections.

As pan-regional polling consortium Latinobarometro pointed out in a 2021 study, popular support for democracy in Latin America is at its lowest in at least a quarter century. In 2020, only 40% of Brazilians agreed that democracy was preferable to other forms of government, down from 55% in 2010. Given persistent inequalities, bleak economic prospects and deep-seated distrust of political class that has proven to be corrupt and indifferent, these trends will be difficult to reverse.

Perhaps Lulas’ most urgent task, in the wake of the Brasilia uprising, is to identify and bring to justice not only the direct participants in Sunday’s uprising, but to trace the chain of guilt as well. far as possible. He must exercise caution, knowing that he governs a divided nation. But he must not allow violence to pass.

He would need help from abroad. The swift response from world leaders condemning the attempted coup was vital to dashing any illusions the rebels might have had that their mad effort had any legitimacy. But more needs to be done.

The United States bears a particularly heavy responsibility for what happened on Sunday in Brasilia. It not only added the political violence of January 6 to the world’s anti-democratic toolbox. Congressman Eduardo Bolsdonaro, the president’s son, was greeted by Trump at Mar-a-Lago. He also discussed strategy with Stephen Bannon and had lunch with Jason Miller.

The US armed forces could leverage their deep ties to the Brazilian military to let them know that coups are not acceptable. Washington should honor any request to extradite Brazilian insurgents to the United States. He should not offer refuge to the former president, now entrenched in Florida.

The United States has been directly involved in fueling Brazil’s anti-democratic flame. He has a responsibility to help put out the fire before it does more damage to Brazilian democracy.

More from Bloomberg Opinion:

Social media companies failed again in Brazil: Parmy Olson

North America Three amigos are out of tune: Eduardo Porter

How Peaceful Protest Lost Its Power: Leonid Bershidsky

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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the Editorial Board or of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Eduardo Porter is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Latin America, US economic policy and immigration. He is the author of American Poison: How Racial Hostility Destroyed Our Promise and The Price of Everything: Finding Method in the Madness of What Things Cost.

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