If China Arms Russia, Our Whole World Will Be Changed Forever, Writes Author Ian WILLIAMS

The consequences were almost beyond imagination. Everything about Vladimir Putin’s frenzied invasion of Ukraine is unthinkable – but if China openly supports the Russian dictator’s embattled military, then our entire way of life could be at stake.

The government of Chinese President Xi Jinping is already funding the Kremlin to pay for the war by boosting imports of Russian oil, gas and agricultural products that the West shuns. It is building a new gas pipeline from Russia to China and offers “dual-use” technology such as drones – supposedly for civilian use but used by Russia for surveillance.

But there is a red line, drawn with blood. If the Chinese start supplying arms to Russia, they will get over it. Putin is pushing hard for this, and US intelligence has concluded that Xi may be ready to provide “lethal support”.

Just yesterday, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi met Putin in Moscow, reiterating their “continuous cooperation”. What else they discussed, we don’t know yet.

But if the day comes when China begins to openly supply weapons, it will redefine global politics in a way we haven’t seen since the Cold War.

The government of Chinese President Xi Jinping is already funding the Kremlin to pay for the war by boosting imports of Russian oil, gas and agricultural products that the West shuns.Pictured: Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in Beijing, China, February 4, 2022

Just yesterday, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi (left) met with Putin (right) in Moscow and reiterated their “continuous cooperation”

Even the darkest days of a brewing conflict between the Soviet Union and NATO are no match for the catastrophe that threatens to engulf us if China supplies arms to Russia.

As a longtime foreign correspondent based in Moscow, the Indo-Pacific region, and China, I’m used to dictator saber-rattling. But Putin is now openly threatening the nuclear arsenals of Ukraine and Europe in unprecedented ways.

Meanwhile, China has been quietly building up its own nuclear strike force. By 2035, 1,500 warheads are expected to be ready to be launched — each with a destructive power that would dwarf the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

The last time we faced a nuclear standoff was during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, and it lasted only a few days. If Xi Jinping and Putin join hands, the threat to the world will be unimaginable.

To those of us in the democratic West, it seems insane that any world leader would want to use that kind of firepower for anything but last-ditch defense. And, luckily, I know that many Chinese politicians are wary of Putin’s nuclear rhetoric.

But Xi and Putin are tyrants who are not bound by our leaders. This makes it harder for our intelligence agencies to predict what might happen.

One thing we do know is that, so far, Xi Jinping and Putin have underestimated Western involvement in this war.

I’m almost certain that Xi Jinping knew in advance about Russia’s intentions to invade Ukraine, but they all agree that democracy is too rotten and the economy too weak to impose meaningful sanctions, let alone support President Vladimir Zelensky’s generous resistance up.

Xi Jinping and Putin are tyrants, they are not bound by our leaders

Putin is now openly threatening Ukraine and all of Europe in unprecedented ways, implicitly or explicitly threatening its nuclear arsenal.Pictured: Military doctors carry a wounded soldier, Bakhmut, Ukraine, February 22, 2023

I’m almost certain that Xi knew in advance that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine, but they all agree that democracy is too rotten and the economy is too weak to impose meaningful sanctions

Putin and Xi share a personal chemistry and a shared worldview. Both countries resented the humiliation imposed on their countries by the West, and both dreamed of restoring the mythical greatness of their respective empires.

Seeing the U.S. and Europe drawn into the conflict serves Xi’s purposes—but Beijing is also appalled by the incompetence of the Russian military, especially since the People’s Liberation Army shares many of its characteristics.

So now we’ve reached a critical juncture. The tripartite relationship between the superpowers will be transformed if Xi becomes an open partner in Putin’s brutality. Essentially, like the Cold War, the world will split into two blocs: the free and the not free.

Xi Jinping will declare that China is the sworn enemy of the democratic world, especially the United States, and that the war in Ukraine will be extended indefinitely.

China is already the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter, and its advanced weapons systems will support a crumbling Russian military. But its impact goes far beyond that.

The West will have to react, which could lead us to sever trade relations with China – an economic earthquake that will dwarf anything that happens with Russia over Ukraine. We are hopelessly dependent on China for electronics, engineering and many other fields. There is hardly a supply chain that does not pass through China, and we in the West have been too slow to reduce critical dependencies.

It is no exaggeration to say that this has the potential to lead to at least a partial breakdown of society.

Just one example: Although Apple has shifted some production to India and Vietnam, it relies on China for 95% of its iPhone production. The supply chain created to manufacture these smartphones is more complex and highly tuned than any other industry.

If Xi Jinping and Putin join hands, the threat to the world will be unimaginable.Pictured: Putin attends a patriotic concert at the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow, February 22, 2023

One thing we do know is that, so far, Xi Jinping and Putin have underestimated Western involvement in this war.Pictured: On February 22, 2023, Putin welcomed soldiers at the Luzhniki Stadium

Turning it off would deal a heavy blow to a Western culture that is completely dependent on smartphones. One estimate predicts that the price of a new iPhone could rise fivefold by 2027, with a new phone costing £5,000. The black market for used phones will become both lucrative and brutal.

Even more damaging is the loss of raw materials on which the global electronics market depends. These 17 minerals are known as “rare earths”—despite their unknown names (neodymium, dysprosium, yttrium, cerium), they are essential to modern life.

Rare earths are vital to modern electronics, used in small amounts in everything from microchips, screens, medical devices, rechargeable batteries and magnets to missile guidance systems.

China currently mines as much as 63 percent of the world’s rare earths and processes about 85 percent, which is expensive and messy. Without these materials, Western defenses may not be able to repair them when they break down.

Equally catastrophic could be the damage to our economy.Last year, the Office for Budget Responsibility [OBR] It has been calculated that China’s military escalation will force the UK to spend £25bn more on defense, more than 2% of our GDP [GDP].

The OBR also modeled the impact of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan: As well as causing electronics prices to skyrocket, it would force us to borrow £20bn a year and reduce our GDP by more than 5% over a decade, leaving a £57bn hole in government coffers . This is equivalent to the entire defense budget.

This sounds like a doomsday scenario. But if Mr. Xi arms Russia and the West retaliates with sanctions on China, hardliners in Beijing will argue that now is the ideal time to annex Taiwan.

It sounds crazy. But, just a year ago, the idea of ​​invading Ukraine was still the same. Conciliatory voices in the UK and US will argue that Xi will not do this because the Chinese economy benefits so much from global trade.

Putin and Xi share personal chemistry and shared worldview

Tripartite relationship between superpowers to shift if Xi becomes Putin’s brutish public partner

Last week, former British chancellor Philip Hammond argued in a special article for Beijing’s Communist Party mouthpiece, China Daily, that current world events should be considered “background noise” and urged Britain and China to ” Return to business as usual”.

This naivety would be laughable if it weren’t so scary.

We have to keep our eyes open to see how closely the Russian and Chinese militaries cooperate.

This week, they joined South African warships in a ten-day naval exercise in the Indian Ocean.

They have moved beyond token displays of camaraderie and are coordinating their ability to fight together on the battlefield.

China is already supplying anti-aircraft missile radar components to a sanctioned Russian defense company and allegedly providing satellite imagery to the mercenary Wagner Group to aid in combat operations.

This is only a small step towards the start of the open supply of armaments. When Xi Jinping crosses that red line, the world will be changed forever.

• Ian Williams is the author of Dragon Fire: China’s New Cold War, published by Birlinn.