UPDATE 1-US House Republicans Predict Success of Uncertain Debt Ceiling Vote

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(Recasts with new quotes from lawmaker, analyst)

By David Morgan and Katharine Jackson

WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) – A leading Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives predicted on Tuesday that his party would muster the votes needed to pass a plan to cut spending and raise the government’s debt ceiling. $31.4 trillion government, despite signs of growing opposition among Republicans. ranks.

“It will pass. I’m telling you right now, it will pass the floor of the House,” Rep. Tom Emmer, the House’s No. 3 Republican, told Reuters in an interview.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy can afford to lose the support of no more than four of his 222 Republican members, if he is to pass the bill, which would increase the borrowing limit by $1.5 trillion. of dollars.

But at least many seemed to decline their support as lawmakers returned to Washington on Tuesday. Republican leaders say the legislation is not open to change.

The proposal has little chance of passing the Democratic-controlled Senate. But Republicans are hoping a show of unity can force Democratic President Joe Biden to negotiate after a months-long stalemate.

Biden has insisted that Congress raise the debt ceiling without conditions, as he has done three times under Republican President Donald Trump.

“For Republicans, it’s literally a choice between doing this and giving Kevin McCarthy the ball, or if you don’t want to do it, then you give Joe Biden a blank check,” Emmer said.

The House Rules Committee, a guardian of the legislation, will consider the bill on Tuesday afternoon. This could be followed by a vote in the House as early as Wednesday.

Washington and Wall Street are focused on the next “X date,” possibly weeks from now, when the U.S. Treasury would no longer be able to pay all of its bills, triggering a default that would rattle the global economy.

It could be difficult for Congress to raise the debt ceiling before then if House Republicans are unable to unite behind a proposal, analysts say.

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“This is the scenario that introduces the most risk into the equation,” said Rohit Kumar, co-director of PwC’s national tax office in Washington.

The last protracted debt ceiling stalemate in 2011 led to a downgrade in the US credit rating, which rattled financial markets and increased borrowing costs.

Debt markets are already giving warning signs as investors are wary. Investors expect the Treasury Department to come up with a new “X-date” forecast in the coming weeks.

HOW MANY “NO” VOTES?

Brian Riedl, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, gives House Republicans a one-in-two chance of passing the legislation this week.

“The vast majority of Republicans are on board,” Riedl said. “But you have moderate and conservative lawmakers trying to push it in competing directions.”

Some Republicans say he is not doing enough to reduce the deficit.

“Right now, I’m a no,” Rep. Nancy Mace told Reuters.

Others are pushing for tougher work requirements for social programs, or worry that proposed cuts to renewable energy tax credits will hurt their home countries.

(Reporting by David Morgan and Katharine Jackson; Editing by Scott Malone, Andy Sullivan, David Gregorio and Deepa Babington)

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