Anxious neighbors sigh in relief as US and China talk

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By Laura BickerAsia-Pacific Correspondent

30 minutes ago

image source, Getty Images

Legend,

Xi Jinping and Joe Biden last met in Bali on the sidelines of the G20 summit in late 2022

If China’s neighbors near and far could have texted Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in the past 48 hours, it would likely have been some version of, “Can you two sort things out, s ‘please ?

Of course, the whole world was watching US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing this weekend – but perhaps not more so than the countries that would be on the front lines of any conflict between the US and China.

For 35 minutes on Monday, when Mr. Blinken became the top US diplomat to meet with Mr. Xi since 2018, a collective sigh of relief was likely breathed through this tactical reach of US allies in the Pacific – from Japan and from South Korea to the North. , through the Philippines, south to Australia. Southeast Asian economies sitting on crucial global supply routes, and tiny Pacific island nations, torn between Chinese and American openings, would have been equally reassured.

“Everyone learns to live with the Sino-American rivalry, but no one wants to choose between them,” says John Delury, professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. “There will be some relief to see these two countries acting like adults.”

That certainly seemed to be the message both sides were looking to send. Over two days, Mr. Blinken met with top Chinese diplomats Wang Yi and Qin Gang – the latter for several hours, including a “working dinner” – before finally sitting down with Mr. Xi in the Great Hall of the People. .

At the end, Mr. Xi hailed the “progress” in the talks and referred to “agreements on specific issues”, without saying which ones. Back in Washington DC, Mr Biden praised Mr Blinken for doing “a hell of a job”. But the 61-year-old secretary of state, always a pragmatic diplomat, told reporters he had “clear eyes” on China. He welcomed the reopening of high-level communication and said the Chinese agreed with the Americans that relations needed to stabilize, but he also admitted that there were “many issues on which we deeply – even vehemently – disagree”.

And yet the dull readings, without breakthroughs and with much qualification, were met with hope rather than disappointment. That’s how low the expectations were.

image source, Getty Images

Legend,

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters he had ‘clear eyes’ on China

Relations between Washington and Beijing have been so strained that Americans have come hoping to avoid conflict, a growing risk that has alarmed the region.

A recent poll by the Eurasia Group Foundation suggests that more than 90% of respondents in South Korea, the Philippines and Singapore are “worried” about a confrontation between the two superpowers. Nearly half of respondents chose regional tensions as the most pressing challenge facing their country.

“The world doesn’t want to see this relationship spiral out of control,” said Bonnie Glaser, executive director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program. “There has been anxiety in the region and beyond that the United States and China were not talking – countries want to know that if there were to be an accident, both sides could avoid escalation .”

It is no longer playing field politics. It has even gone far beyond concerns about global trade and semiconductor supply. It has become a battle for influence that forces countries in the region to make tough choices about their own security.

South Korea and Japan have been US allies for decades, but historical grievances have kept them apart. Today, Beijing’s growing assertiveness, coupled with North Korea’s record missile launches, has produced a much-needed thaw as they face the same growing threats.

Driven by a similar emergency, the Philippines allowed the United States access to more military bases. Tokyo is also reportedly preparing military aid for Manila – a move that could bring the Japanese back to Philippine shores for the first time since World War II.

Legend,

Taiwan, a bone of contention between the US and China, is in the ‘first island chain’ of US friendly territories

What many of these countries would most like to see is the resumption of a military hotline between Beijing and the Pentagon. Mr. Blinken insisted on this in his meetings, but the Chinese, it seems, did not agree. The region is particularly sensitive that the two could clash militarily over the self-governing island of Taiwan, which China claims as its own.

“We need reliable communication channels. We need to reduce the risk of military accident,” Ms. Glaser said.

For Asia-Pacific countries, the meeting is just the beginning, and yet another attempt. But, for now, they’ll take whatever progress they can. Even if it all means being able to breathe.

“This visit doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does at least show that the United States and China are trying to defuse tensions and maintain dialogue, which bodes well for this part of the world,” Delury said.

But the biggest challenge remains. Beijing has made it clear that Taiwan is at the “core” of their interests. So the question is what happens next between the world’s two largest economies – and the nuclear powers?

The problem for Washington is that time is running out as another election looms. President Biden’s Republican rivals have accused him of being soft on China. He might be tempted to show that he can stand up to Mr. Xi rather than alongside him.

“If the relationship is to be stabilized,” says Ms. Glaser, “it is now.”

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