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At the end of last month, Russia Wagner Group It made international headlines as the drama of its brief mutiny played out on screens around the world.
Strongman Vladimir Putin, the strongman who ruled Russian politics with an iron rod for 23 years, has been pushed to seek a settlement to end a humiliating challenge to his authority in the face of the threat of a violent insurgency.
All of this will have implications for Beijing, the Chinese leadership in Zhongnanhai, and Xi Jinping himself.
First, the rebellion took place against the backdrop of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Likewise, if Xi Jinping invades Taiwan militarily, the PLA may not fully obey.
Compared to Russia’s military, China’s military is likely to be composed of only children from the poorest backgrounds, which can cause confusion when they are called upon to withstand the enormous psychological stress and widespread official corruption of modern warfare.
Once the war starts to fester, the chances of a mutiny or military coup increase.
Secondly, Prigorzhin was Putin’s old friend and confidant more than 30 years ago. Prigoren personally led the troops to the front and participated in a cruel and difficult war. He was basically Putin’s ground man. But when it seemed like there was no hope of victory, everything changed.
Like Putin, Xi is a strongman ruler whose faction has consolidated its dominance through a bitter power struggle at the party’s 20th National Congress in October 2022.
This means that any future challenge to Xi will have to come from within his own faction. Whether it is from the perspective of human nature or historical results, things have developed in this way.
Xi Jinping is unprepared for this, let alone ignore the possibility of danger lurking in the “Xi family army”.
army dissipated
What’s more, when Prigozhin rebelled, he didn’t act recklessly, but marched to Moscow with all his strength, knowing that he had to go straight to the top and confront the boss.
If there is a similar rebellion in China, the target must be Zhongnanhai and Xi Jinping himself. Every action elicits an equal and opposite reaction. There is always the opportunity to shoot yourself in the foot. Those who play with fire end up setting themselves on fire.
When the Wagner Group marched towards Moscow, it was so fast that there was no resistance, it was like marching in no man’s land. It means that there are almost no obstacles along the way, and advance quickly until it is only 200 kilometers away from Moscow, roaring at the gate of the capital.
The Russian military, police and security forces seem to have vanished, so no one showed up to protect Putin from gunpoint.
Xi Jinping once said of the collapse of the former Soviet Union that “nobody was manly enough” to protect the regime.
Putin could only mobilize six fighter jets for low-altitude bombing, but even so, they were shot down by Wagner’s forces.
Ordinary Russians did not support Putin either. In fact, they welcomed Wagner’s army with open arms.
What might they be thinking? Maybe they have suffered long enough under Putin.
If Prigozhin hadn’t cooperated with Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s mediation attempts — real or not — it’s entirely possible he’d come all the way to Moscow.
Moscow is vulnerable not only because of lack of military defense but also because of the attitude of its people.
Public support is questioned
Putin clearly knows this. After all, he quickly agreed to a settlement and immediately promised to pardon Prigozhin and Wagner if Lukashenko stepped in. It must have been a shock to him to realize that no one cared about that, either in the military or in the general population.
The impact will be felt more clearly in China. Look at how many sensitive words and banned search terms the authorities under Xi Jinping have banned on the Chinese internet to the point where people joke that you don’t even know how to use Chinese.
The power of the Chinese Communist Party leadership is inversely proportional to the amount of public support it enjoys. The more power you have, the more you lose popular support.
the reason is simple. Today, people do not want to live under a one-party state. Beyond that, we are now a dictatorship of one faction and one man. This is against the spirit of the times, against the will of the people, and is extreme and unacceptable.
Do you think they don’t know this?
Many believe that the day Xi Jinping invaded Taiwan was the day he signed the regime’s death warrant. I basically agree with them.
Because the People’s Liberation Army is not an opponent of the US military. The Chinese people have suffered long enough under the Communist Party, and long enough under Xi Jinping.
The war will throw China into chaos. The anti-communist and anti-Xi forces will unite like never before, and the voices of opposition inside and outside the party will be unprecedentedly high.
How will Xi Jinping or his faction stem this tide? They will crumble under the sheer force of public opinion.
This is why a Russian defection is Xi Jinping’s worst nightmare.
Chen Pokong was an organizer of the 1989 pro-democracy protests in China and a political commentator, author, television commentator and columnist for Free Asia Mandarin Radio now living in the United States.This article only represents Mr. Chen’s personal views and does not represent the position of Radio Free Asia.
Translated by Louiseta Moody. Edited by Paul Eckert.
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