Meteorologists say Earth hit a global heat record in June and July has gotten hotter

Aalready warming the earthhit its warmest June on record, smashing the former global mark by nearly a quarter of a degree (0.13 degrees Celsius), as global oceans set temperature records for the third month in a row, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

June61.79 degrees Fahrenheit (16.55 degrees Celsius) the global average was 1.89 degrees F (1.05 degrees Celsius)above the 20th century average, the first time a summer month around the world was warmer than normal by more than one degree Celsius, according to NOAA. Other weather monitoring systems, such as NASA, Berkeley Earth and Europes Copernicus, had already called last month the hottest June on record, but NOAA is the benchmark for record keeping with data stretching back 174 years to 1850.

The increase from the last record in June is a considerably large jump because global monthly records are typically so wide they often jump hundredths, not quarters of a degree, said NOAA climatologist Ahira Sanchez-Lugo.

The recent record high temperatures, as well as the extreme fires, pollution and flooding we are seeing this year arewhat we expectto be seen in a warmer climate, said Natalie Mahowald, a climatologist at Cornell University. We are just beginning to get a taste of the kinds of impacts that are expected to worsen with climate change.

The land and ocean were the hottest June has ever seen. But the globe’s sea surface, which makes up 70% of Earth’s surface, set monthly records for high temperatures in April, May and June and the North Atlantic has been off the charts since mid-March, scientists say. The Caribbean region broke previous records, as did the UK.

The first half of 2023 was the third hottest January to June on record, behind 2016 and 2020, according to NOAA.

NOAA says there’s a 20% chance that 2023 will be the hottest year on record, with next year more likely, but the likelihood of a record is rising and outside scientists such as Brown Universitys Kim Cobb are predicting a photo-finish with 2016 and 2020 for the hottest year on record. Berkeley Earths Robert Rohde said his group estimates there is an 80% chance that 2023 will be the hottest year on record.

This is because it is likely to get hotter. July is generally the hottest month of the year, and the record for July and the hottest month of any year is 62.08 degrees (16.71 degrees Celsius) set in both July 2019 and July 2021. Eleven of the first twelve days of Julywere hotter than ever on record, according to an unofficial, preliminary analysis by the University of Maines Climate Reanalyzer. The Japan Meteorological Agency and the World Meteorological Organization said the world had just gone through its hottest week on record.

NOAA registeredwater temperaturesaround Florida 98 degrees (36.7 degrees Celsius) Wednesday near the Everglades and 97 degrees (36.1 degrees Celsius) Tuesday near the Florida Keys, while some forecasters are predicting near-world-record temperatures in Death Valley of around 130 degrees (54.4 degrees Celsius) this weekend.

NOAA’s global analysis chief, Russ Vose, said the record June was due to two main reasons: long-term warming caused by heat-trapping gases spewed out by burning coal, oil and natural gas, which is then boosted bynatural El Niño,which is warming parts of the Pacific and changing weather patterns around the world, adding additional heat to already rising global temperatures. He said most of June’s warming is likely due to long-term human causes, because so far this new El Niño is still considered weak to moderate. Its forecast will peak in winter, which is why NOAA and other forecasters predict that 2024 will be even warmer than this year.

While El Nino and its cooling flipside, La Nina, have a big impact on year-over-year temperatures, their long-term effects are much weaker than human-caused warming, said climatologist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth and technology company Stripe. In 1998, the world experienced a super El Nino event with record global temperatures; today, 1998 temperatures would be an unusually cool year. Human-induced climate change adds permanent heat worth a super El Niño to the atmosphere every decade.

Global and Antarctic sea ice levels reached record highs in June, NOAA also said.

Until we stop burning fossil fuels it will only get worse, said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London in an email. Heat records will continue to be broken, people and ecosystems are already in many cases beyond what they can handle.