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Donald Menzel
The relationship between China and the United States is sometimes good and sometimes bad, sometimes love-hate is mixed. Fast forward to 2016, and the unexpected election of Donald J. Trump is the fourth in the United States. President Trump quickly realized that China must recover from international trade and technology transfer. Less than three months after taking office, President Trump sat next to Chairman Xi Jinping in the Sea Lake Manor, persuading him that the future US-China trade relationship should not be so one-sided. Mr. Trump’s self-proclaimed business acumen, and the persuasive skills he believes, will turn things around. Four years later, with the collapse of personal diplomacy and a fierce trade war that turned into a global event, Trump left the White House holding his hat, never looking back at the damage he caused.
Did US-China relations move forward during Trump’s administration? of course not. Are they going backwards? Maybe, but due to the interdependence of the two countries’ economies and the counterattack of global skeptics, US-China relations have become complicated on a wide range of issues. An obvious result of the Trump era and the emerging Biden era is that the past will not define the future.
Starting from the confrontational meeting between Chinese and American diplomats in Anchorage in March 2021, let us take a closer look at what President Biden has done to reset US-China relations. On the surface, the Anchorage incident is a setback in US-China relations. This is of course a clash between China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi and Secretary of State Anthony Brinken, who described the Xi Jinping regime as a threat to global stability. In addition, he criticized China’s repression in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. China’s Yang Jiechi responded with a 17-minute tirade, suggesting that the United States stop advancing its own democracy in other parts of the world. Critics can certainly view this collision as a retrogression in US-China relations, rather than advancement. After the Trump administration confused and often contradicted China (including encouraging repression of Hong Kong and Xinjiang), others called the exchange a realignment of relations.
Let’s talk about the trade war. U.S. Trade Representative Catherine Day stated that the Biden administration is studying all available options for implementing the trade agreement signed in January 2020. China has pledged to purchase an additional US$200 billion worth of US goods over the 2017 level in the next two years. Dai promised to conduct a top-down review of China’s trade policy. Tai said that once the review goes further, she will meet with her Chinese counterparts to discuss trade agreements. Most observers believe that the resumption of trade dialogue after a nine-month break is a positive step forward.
Alas, the US trade deficit with China shows no signs of abating. Indeed, it is growing. By the first three months of 2021, the total US trade deficit was 212.8 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 64.2% over the same period last year when the US economy was basically shut down by the coronavirus pandemic. Will the Biden administration abolish the Truman-era trade war sanctions? It is unlikely, but people can expect a targeted and balanced trade method that, if successful, will definitely take a step forward.
The downward spiral in US-China relations is certainly worrying. President Biden said that he expects competition, not confrontation. In addition, he described this relationship as extreme competition without conflict. Not a small achievement, right? But this is a possible surprise. The United States and China may not even want to significantly improve their relations. On the one hand, China has shown almost no signs of slowing down its technological strength, including resolute efforts to reduce its dependence on core technologies such as semiconductors. On the other hand, the United States seems to be criticizing China’s treatment of human rights violations, its aggression in the South China Sea and Taiwan, and its suppression of dissidents in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet.
So, what conclusion can we draw about whether the US-China relationship is going forward or backward? Probably not much; on the contrary, a more accurate description is that the relationship is going horizontal, cooperating on some issues and disagreement on others.
Dr. Donald C. Menzel is a resident of Loveland. He studied political science at Pennsylvania State University.
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