Ethiopia goes to the polls amid insecurity

Ethiopians go to the polls on Monday, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed promoting a message of unity amid conflict and looming famine in the north of the country.

The national elections, which will see 547 elected members of the federal parliament and the leader of the winning party become prime minister, were due to be held in August 2020 but have been delayed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his work to end a 20-year territorial dispute with Eritrea after the war, earlier this week called on Ethiopians to secure “the first free elections and fair in the country “.

Monday marks his first electoral test since taking office in 2018 following mass protests against the former coalition government, dominated by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigray.

But despite a bold reform agenda that included crackdowns on corruption and the release of political prisoners, Abiy found himself last year carrying out military operations against the TPLF in the northern Tigray region after seizing bases military.

The ensuing conflict resulted in massive casualties and displacement, although no official toll has been established, and put the region on the brink of famine, according to the United Nations. Meanwhile, allegations of human rights violations have clouded the federal government’s international reputation. The African Union this week launched an investigation to investigate the allegations.

Troubled polls

The legitimacy of the election has also been questioned after parties in Oromia, the most populous region in Ethiopia where Abiy is from, said they would boycott her on charges of government oppression. .

The Oromo Liberation Front announced in March that it would withdraw after the party leaders were jailed and its national offices allegedly closed. The Oromo Federalist Congress withdrew on similar grounds, with prominent figures imprisoned for terrorism.

The withdrawals coincided with an upsurge in deadly attacks in Oromia and parts of the northwestern region of Amhara, blamed on a militant branch of the OLF.

Meanwhile, the TPLF is now officially designated as a terrorist organization, with its leaders either arrested, leading a guerrilla war in Tigray, or on the run.

“The main election challenge is insecurity, especially in western and southern Oromia where the activities of ethnic militias are primarily designed to undermine the electoral process itself,” said Louw Nel, senior political analyst. at NKC African Economics, in a statement. research note Thursday.

“The Ethiopian security forces have struggled to create the conditions for free and fair elections in the most troubled areas and have been implicated in their own abuses.

Insecurity is also a concern in the western region of Benishangul-Gumuz, fueled by competition for resources, Nel said, as well as long-standing ethnic animosities.

Although dozens of parties fielded candidates, only the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice has a party leader with a significant national profile Berhanu Nega, who was elected mayor of the country’s capital Addis Ababa in 2005 before moving to be ousted by the TPLF-led government and jailed.

Ethiopia’s National Electoral Council announced on June 10 that elections would no longer be held in Harar and Somalia regions, as well as a referendum on the creation of a new state out of several districts of the Nations of the South, nationalities and the regional state of the people.

This is in addition to the 40 constituencies and six regions where polls were postponed in May due to disruptions in voter registration. While these polls are now scheduled for September 6, elections in war-ravaged Tigray are postponed indefinitely, “effectively depriving 5.7 million people who mostly oppose the federal government,” according to a recent report. of the political risk consultancy firm Pangea-Risk.

Reputational risk

Abiy claimed victory in Tigray in November 2020 and the region is now under interim administration after the government declared the TPLF prime minister’s office illegal. However, it is still grappling with a low-level insurgency, which the Pangea-Risk report says increases the risk of disproportionate war tactics on the part of rebel groups.

“Persistent insecurity, delayed elections and a seemingly failed telecommunications licensing cycle are all indicators of concern as Ethiopia struggles to recover from the pandemic and the economy slows to its lowest growth rate for almost 20 years, ”the report says.

The conflict in Tigray has caused damage to global reputation, which could have a spillover effect on interest in the country as an investment destination, a key tenet of Abiy’s push towards privatization and economic liberation.

“Businesses, once driven by the prospect of investing in a country led by a Nobel Peace Prize laureate determined to open up to the world, now face a reputational risk by investing in a country associated with crimes of war and famine, ”NKC’s Nel said.

The government is currently seeking to auction off a 40% stake in Ethio Telecom, which continues to generate interest, with the ultimate ambition being to generate revenue through partial privatization and new license tenders, while at the same time alleviating the burden of debt generated in part by the state. companies owned like Ethio Telecom.

“A relatively peaceful election will help rehabilitate Ethiopia and Mr. Abiy’s image,” Nel said.

“The violence in the run up to and after the elections will do the opposite, exposing the country as fractured and accelerating its isolation.”