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Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is heading for a landslide electoral victory. But the pivotal moment he envisioned is overshadowed by his government’s dramatic defeats in its war in the Tigray region.
Designated to preside over a country plagued by famine and armed insurgencies, Mr. Abiy is armed with an electoral mandate that some consider absolute, but that broad layers of the population deem illegitimate.
Why we wrote this
Elections are seen as a peaceful way to resolve political differences. As the Ethiopian vote arrives, will the electoral mandate heal a polarized society or deepen the conflict over national identity?
The ground was not fair and it was not free because not everyone participated, explains Tsedale Lemma, editor of the English daily Addis Standard. The election polarized Ethiopia between those who absolutely celebrated the election and those who were disenfranchised. From that perspective, this election did more harm than good for the country.
With a contested history, competing views on national identity, historical grievances and alternative facts, Ethiopians are learning that elections cannot be a panacea. Some say they need something more: a forum where they can be heard and listen to each other.
What is the right balance between the dominant state and regional autonomy? What is our common vision of history? Who are we as Ethiopians? wonders Yonas Ashine, political scientist at the University of Addis Ababa. Elections are a limited tool that cannot answer these questions.
AMMAN, JORDAN
The election in Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous but deeply polarized country, has been called historic.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has long made democratic elections a primary goal of his administration, is heading for a landslide victory.
But with election results soon to be announced, the pivotal moment Mr. Abiy envisioned is overshadowed by his government’s staggering defeats in its war in the Tigray region.
Why we wrote this
Elections are seen as a peaceful way to resolve political differences. As the Ethiopian vote arrives, will the electoral mandate heal a polarized society or deepen the conflict over national identity?
Planned to preside over a lost war and a country plagued by famine and armed insurgencies, Mr. Abiy is armed with an electoral mandate that some consider absolute, but that broad layers of the population deem illegitimate .
With a contested history, competing views on national identity, historical grievances and alternative facts, Ethiopians are learning that elections cannot be a panacea for a divided nation.
As violence escalates in both the north and south, some Ethiopians are finding they need something more than an urn to rebuild their frayed social fabric: a forum where they can be heard and shared. listen to each other.
One election, two Ethiopia
At the heart of Ethiopia’s political divide are two different visions of the nation and its political system.
Mr. Abiys’ Prosperity Party, supportive elites in Addis Ababa and many Amhara communities want to reform Ethiopia’s ethno-national federal system.
Conversely, regional communities and political movements claim that power has not been sufficiently delegated and that successive governments have not respected or implemented the regional autonomy defined in the constitution.
In light of these tales of the duel and even the facts, Ethiopian observers say the elections failed to find common ground.
What is the right balance between the dominant state and regional autonomy? What is our common vision of history? Who are we as Ethiopians? asks Yonas Ashine, assistant professor of political science at the University of Addis Ababa.
Elections are a limited tool that cannot answer these questions, he says.
Mr Abiy, a self-proclaimed reformist who came to power in 2018 following popular protests over a reshuffle in the then-ruling coalition, had long prioritized democratic elections.
The Nobel Laureate pushed the elections forward last week even as his federal forces are at war with Tigray, one of the 11 regions that make up the country, a conflict that has pushed 900,000 people into what the United States have described it as a man-made famine.
Strengths and weaknesses of elections
On paper, Ethiopia had many ingredients for historic democratic elections: the participation of 47 political parties, including several opposition groups; civil society observers at polling stations; and over 37 million registered voters out of a population of 110 million.
The centerpiece of what has been billed as the freest elections in Ethiopia’s history is the Independent Electoral Council of Ethiopia. It is chaired by Birtukan Mideksa, a democracy advocate and opposition leader who was imprisoned by the previous ruling party and was drawn to Mr Abiys promising democratic transition, reform and freedoms.
Last week, the board voted in more than 400 of the country’s 550 districts, three times the size of Germany, which is home to dozens of languages and a diverse topography.
In towns and villages, people lined up outside polling stations before dawn and until late at night.
Supporters of the Prosperity Party, which ran on a platform of peace and unity, were particularly motivated. They say the Prime Minister is the man who must bring calm to the country and transform the nation.
Residents say voting in Addis Ababa, the capital of five million people, was the first open and competitive election in the city’s history.
But while the elections were largely free, international and Ethiopian observers warn that the playing field is far from level. Federal authorities jailed several leaders of major opposition parties months before the vote was postponed.
In Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest region and hotbed of protest and armed movements that have fought years of marginalization, the offices of the two main political parties have been closed and staff have reportedly been harassed by authorities, prompting them to boycott the elections.
Elections did not take place in war-torn and famine-torn Tigreas and several other communities, leaving an estimated 20% of eligible Ethiopians unable to participate in the elections.
The ground was not fair and it was not free because not everyone participated, explains Tsedale Lemma, editor of the English daily Addis Standard.
This polarized Ethiopia between those who absolutely celebrated the election and those who were deprived of their constitutionally guaranteed right to vote.
From that perspective, this election did more harm than good for the country.
Violence
With the political path closed to certain disenfranchised groups, more people are likely to resort to violence, observers warn.
In recent weeks, the Oromia Liberation Army, an armed insurgent group that rejects the political process and believes the only path to greater autonomy for their region, has seen a spike in recruitment and activity through ‘armed conflict with the state. Violent attacks on federal forces forced some polling stations to close.
And in Tigray, while the ballots were still being counted on Monday, the federal forces were routed and the Tigrayans, who defend ethnic federalism and oppose Mr. Abiys’ reforms, took back their capital. regional Mekelle in the north.
His impressive losses on the battlefield prompted the federal government to declare a unilateral ceasefire in Tigray on Tuesday, citing humanitarian concerns and the farming season.
But Tigrayan fighters rejected Mr Abiys’ ceasefire, even threatening to march towards neighboring Amhara state to the west and Eritrea to the north.
Divergent views about the history, current structure and future of the Ethiopian state underlie this chronic violence, says William Davison, Ethiopian analyst for the International Crisis Group.
The election did not resolve these fundamental conflicts; indeed, in some important respects, they may well have exacerbated them.
Find common ground
Some Ethiopian observers argue that a national dialogue is the balm needed to heal Ethiopians’ historic wounds and current differences.
Rather than a majority contest at the ballot box, they say Ethiopians need an inclusive forum where there are no winners or losers.
Didn’t say, don’t have an election. We say yes to the elections, says Ashine of Addis Ababa University, but we also need dialogue and reconciliation alongside the elections to bring disenfranchised groups to the table.
As a model, some Ethiopians cite Tunisia, where civil society leaders and politicians gathered to dialogue after a 2011 revolution to find a common vision for the country’s future, a difficult process that ultimately came to fruition. to a constitution.
Others see the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission as a potential avenue for recognizing crimes committed by the state in previous decades against various communities.
Such a dialogue, they argue, could address historical grievances such as the territorial dispute between the Amhara and the Tigrayans, which this year has escalated into violence and alleged ethnic cleansing.
We need to experience and try all these diverse political processes in Ethiopia beyond the elections to resolve the complex and deeply rooted issues in our society, Ashine said.
The Oromo Liberation Front, one of the two main Oromo political parties that boycotted the elections, called for a comprehensive political dialogue, noting that the aggressive decision for the elections has cost the country an enormous amount of resources and human lives. .
Dialogue means there is a give-and-take, historic compromises and an agreement on a fair game for all, not a zero-sum domination game imposed by one group or party, said Merera Gudina, party chair. of the Oromo Federalist Congress, which is also boycotting the elections.
If there is political will, we can negotiate and chart a common road map. This is what Ethiopia needs today, says Professor Gudina. If we do not come together and listen to each other to understand each other, we risk facing disintegration.
It remains to be seen whether Mr. Abiy, with the electoral mandate he so desires at hand, will be in the mood to reach out.
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Sources 2/ https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2021/0701/Rival-histories-alternative-facts-Can-elections-mend-Ethiopia The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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