The Real Reason Donald Trump Lost 2020

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COVID-19 and His Handling of It? – The 2020 presidential election is particularly unique. The coronavirus pandemic, a generational event with societal-changing effects, is in full swing.

The virus, which will eventually mutate into less virile strains, is in its most potent form. The economy is struggling. Unemployment is high. People are dying. Disagreements over how to deal with the pandemic are exacerbating partisan divisions.

The daily lives of Americans, forced to stay away from each other, work far away, go to school far away, shelter in place, have become unrecognizable from anything familiar. And worst of all, perhaps, is the uncertainty; the road ahead is unclear; Americans do not know how long the pandemic will last or whether we will ever return to normal. The media fueled fear and uncertainty.

All in all, the first days of the pandemic had a kind of flavor.

Of course, the pandemic, which has touched all aspects of American life, has also affected politics. When America shut down, Donald Trump was in the middle of his re-election campaign; Democrats are sorting through dozens of candidates to find their nominee. And suddenly, the number one issue, which dominated the campaign was not the economy, or foreign policy, or Trump for the first four years. That is the coronavirus.

Trump Wins If COVID Never Happens?

Many experts have speculated in the two years since the 2020 election that Trump would have won the election had it not been for the coronavirus. The general argument is twofold. One, things went well for Trump. The economy is strong. The MAGA base is as enthusiastic as ever, while mainstream conservatives seem to have made peace with Trump’s unorthodox behaviors, given his adherence to conservative orthodoxy. So, Trump is well positioned for re-election if the coronavirus doesn’t hit.

Two, Trump’s handling of the coronavirus is perceived as careless, meaning that on what will be the campaigns number one issue, Trump is perceived as weak. Trumps insanity and callousness have fueled the perception as much as his actual policy. When Biden inherited the White House, the pandemic continued, people continued to die; not much has changed in policy aside from the official tone of the new administration, which has spoken respectfully of the virus. Force Majeure events can make or break a presidential administration; The coronavirus is a Force Majeure event that Trump has failed to handle in a politically expedient manner.

A Trump campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, conducted a 2020 election autopsy that suggested Trump lost the 2020 election because of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Fabrizio’s 27-page document shows that voters in 10 key states rated the pandemic as their top voting issue, and President Biden won a higher score on the subject, the Washington Post reported.

FiveThirtyEight also considered whether Trump would have won re-election if not for the coronavirus.

So, what can we ultimately say about the impact of COVID-19 on the 2020 election? Apparently, it worked against Trump. Without the pandemic, he might still have lost the popular vote, but considering how close the election was, he might have had a decent chance of winning the Electoral College, reports Seth Masket. However, the damage to his prospects is far from massive, and that may be somewhat mitigated by polarization. In fact, a better response on Trumps part that could help reduce the spread of the disease or limit its impact on the economy could earn him a re-election bid.

Actually. While it is impossible to say whether Trump would have won the 2020 election if the pandemic had not occurred, it seems reasonable to assume that the pandemic did not help Trump’s re-election chances.

Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. A lawyer, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. He lives in Oregon and listens to Dokken. Follow him on Twitter @harrison_kass.

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