Try Texas Tech for a future bet

On the surface, futures betting is quite simple.

In the case of college football, you pick the team to win the division, conference or national championship.

And then you wait.

Waiting for it changes the value proposition.

The capital you have tied up in these futures just sits on the sidelines for months. That is why it is difficult to justify betting favorites.

The ACC, Big Ten and SEC have become so chalky in football in recent years that it’s practically not worth it for bettors to bet there.

Over the past five years, nine of the 15 champions in those three conferences were picked by the media to win during the preseason.

The media’s preseason opinions in these conferences reflected the opinions of the oddsmakers.

For example, in 2020, Clemson (-550), Ohio State (-400) and Alabama (-135) were picked by the media to win their conference and were priced out of line.

If you had played all three together, you would have still only earned +160 for your money.

That trend continues this summer with Georgia tied to win the SEC, Ohio State at +155 in the Big Ten and Clemson at +150 in the ACC. So where can a punter turn to get value?

Welcome to the brand new, open Big 12.

Even before the Big 12 welcomed BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida into its ranks, it was already producing champions from far and wide.

In 2021, Baylor came out of nowhere and claimed 50/1 tickets to win the conference.

Last season, the Big 12 title game got two more ups. Kansas State (+1700) and TCU (+1400) played an overtime thriller at Jerry World as the Wildcats claimed futures for lucky bettors.

The Big 12s odds also reflect public interest in two teams: Texas and Oklahoma.

They both raise the odds for the remaining teams in the conference that are overlooked by casual bettors.

The same is true this year, as Texas (+125) and Oklahoma (+340) have opened as the top two teams in the Big 12 futures market despite uneven performances in 2022.

While it would be tempting to go long like BYU (100/1) or Houston (120/1), I’ve been circling Texas Tech (+1100) as a Big 12 sleeper.

Betting on College Football?

The Red Raiders were tough on Joey McGuires first year in Lubbock.

They won two more Big 12 contests than the previous year. Crucially, they knocked off both Texas and Oklahoma in the same season for the first time ever.

When healthy, their offense carried them, scoring 37 or more points six times. Zach Kittley, the Techs’ offensive coordinator, is a bona fide star in the mix, with quarterback Tyler Shough returning for 81.5 percent of the offensive line’s snaps (19th) and 75 percent of the return production (31st).

Overall, when factoring in transfers with starting experience, the Red Raiders are the second most experienced team in the conference.

The schedule sees them avoid Oklahoma and have K-State and TCU at home before the season finale at The Forty Acres against Texas.

The timing of the Lone Star State showdown offers a perfect hedging opportunity if Tech enters conference play at 6-2 or 7-1.

The defense needs to improve, but was very stingy in the red zone last year, producing 31 sacks, which leads the conference in both categories.

Tim DeRuyter has a proven track record, molding quality defenses at Air Force, Texas A&M and California before landing in Lubbock.

Given their price (+1100), schedule, offensive ceiling and home field advantage (especially night games), now is the time to buy the Red Raiders.