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Health officials said Tuesday that the highly contagious delta variant of the coronavirus is now responsible for about one in five cases of Covid-19 in the United States, and its prevalence has doubled in the past two weeks.
First identified in India, delta is one of several “variables of concern,” as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization. It quickly spread across India and Britain.
His appearance in the United States is not surprising. With more vaccinations and fewer cases of Covid-19, it is unclear how much trouble Delta will cause here. However, its rapid rise has raised concerns that it may jeopardize the nation’s progress in defeating the pandemic.
“The delta variant is currently the biggest threat in the United States to our attempt to eradicate Covid-19,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the country’s leading infectious disease expert, said at the press conference. The good news, he said, is that the vaccines authorized in the United States are working against the alternative. “We have the tools,” he said. “So let’s use it, and stamp out the outbreak.”
Here are answers to some common questions about the delta variable.
Why are people concerned about the delta variable?
Delta, previously known as B.1.617.2, is believed to be the most transmissible species to date, spreading more easily than the original strain of the virus and the alpha variant first identified in Britain. Public health officials there said Delta could be 50 percent more contagious than Alpha, although exact estimates of its contagiousness vary.
Other evidence suggests that the variant may be able to partially evade antibodies made by the body after infection with the coronavirus or vaccination. The alternative may also make some monoclonal antibody treatments less effective, the CDC notes.
Deltas may also cause more serious illness. A recent Scottish study, for example, found that people with delta type were twice as likely to be hospitalized as those with alpha. But scientists said doubts remain.
“I think the severe disease piece is the only unanswered question,” said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
Where does it spread?
Deltas are reported in 80 countries. It is now the most common type in India and Britain, accounting for more than 90 per cent of cases.
Delta was first recognized in the United States in March. Although Alpha is still the most popular alternative here, Delta has spread quickly. In early April, delta represented only 0.1 percent of cases in the United States, according to the CDC. By early May, the variant represented 1.3 percent of cases, and by early June, that number had jumped to 9.5 percent. At the press conference, Dr Fauci said the estimate was 20.6% a few days ago.
If I get vaccinated, should I worry?
Experts said the delta variant was unlikely to pose a significant risk to fully vaccinated people.
“If you were fully vaccinated, I wouldn’t worry about that very much,” said Dr Ashish K Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health.
According to one recent study, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88 percent effective in protecting against occasional delta-related illnesses, which is close to its 93 percent effectiveness against the alpha variant. The study found that a single dose of the vaccine was only 33 percent effective against Delta.
“Fully immunized individuals should do well with this new phase of the pandemic,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. “However, the protection offered by a single dose appears to be low, and of course if you are not vaccinated at all, consider yourself at high risk.
Understand the Covid crisis in India
He said Delta is likely to infect “large numbers” of unvaccinated people.
Will it cause a new boom?
The epidemic has begun to ebb in the United States, with cases, hospitalizations and deaths declining. The seven-day case average, about 10,350 a day, is the lowest since March 2020. These numbers illustrate the extraordinary progress we’ve made against, Dr. Rochelle Wallinsky, director of the CDC, said at Tuesday’s briefing. A formidable enemy.
Therefore, while delta may represent an increasing percentage of cases, it is not yet clear whether it will lead to an increase in the total number of cases.
“I think we won’t see another big national boom in the United States because we have enough vaccination to prevent that,” Dr. Osterholm said.
However, vaccination rates have been very variable, and are lower in some states and demographic groups. Deltas can fuel outbreaks in the South, where vaccinations are delayed, or among young people, who are less likely to be vaccinated than older adults.
“In places where there is still a lot of susceptibility to the virus, it opens a window for cases to start rising again,” said Justin Lessler, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University. “But even in those states, and certainly at the national level, we may not go back to the numbers we saw last winter.”
However, he said, it could potentially prolong our path out of the pandemic. “It continues to stagnate,” he said.
what should I do?
Take the vaccine. If you have already been vaccinated, encourage your family, friends and neighbors to get vaccinated. Vaccination is likely to slow the spread of all variants and reduce the likelihood of new, more serious variants emerging.
“I encourage vaccinated people to have confidence in vaccines, but be aware that new variants will continue to occur where there is transmission,” said Saskia Popescu, an infectious disease epidemiologist at George Mason University. “So it’s really about ensuring local, national and global vaccination.”
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