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With the rise in the price of a barrel of oil and the impact on fuel prices, the executive and part of the legislature have pressured Petrobras for some sort of intervention in the company. The reflexes can be seen in the company’s stock traded on the exchange.
In one month (between 4/10 and 4/11), the value of Petrobras shares (PETR4) fell by 9.22%. From January to now (4/11), newspapers have remained virtually stable, declining 1.51%.
Those who want to escape the fluctuation around Petrobras have alternatively other assets in the oil and gas sector such as stocks, equity funds and Brazilian Depositary Receipts (BDRs), as the certificates representing shares issued by companies in other countries are called. and are traded at B3.
History of Oil and Gas Assets
Active/Variation (from 3-18-2021 to 3-11-2021):
- Petrobras (PETR4): +26%
- PetroRio (PRIO3): +35%
- 3R Petroleum (RRRP3): -19.5%
- Petroleum Glassy Fund: +26.61%
- BDR EXXO34: +13.47%
- Ibovespa (IBOV): -8.03%
To invest or not to invest in Petrobras?
“The oil and gas market is booming in the world. As we experience political turmoil, this is reflected in risk premiums, especially at Petrobras,” said Matheus Spiess, an analyst at Empiricus.
Spiess believes the post-pandemic period will drive even greater demand for oil, which should keep prices high. Despite Petrobras going through a period of financial reorganization and posting good results (net profit of R$31.1 billion in the third quarter), the political risk still exists.
“The turmoil is expected because of next year’s elections, but it is still worth keeping the papers, even in a risky period, because they should be worth more,” he said.
As a strategist at RB Investimentos, Gustavo Cruz advises against investing in Petrobras for those looking to buy the stock now. Anyone who already owns the stock will have to wait at least until early 2022 before deciding if it’s worth selling.
“There is a favorable context for the business, but interference in the business stands in the way. Although the current situation is good, the expectation is not. Everything that is being put on the table for the 2022 election game has to do with pricing policy. I believe there are options. that will continue to grow,” said Cruz.
Like Cruz, Bruce Barbosa, founder of Nord Research, advises against investing in Petrobras. For him, President Jair Bolsonaro’s (no party) statement on Oct. 28 that Petrobras has a “social bias” and for that reason should not make very high profits “as it has done” reinforces its meddling in the company.
“For the investor, the goal is for the company to grow, make more and more profit and pay even more dividends. But that is not always the case with state-owned companies. The president himself said that Petrobras cannot make a lot of profit,” he said. barbosa.
Options outside PETR4
In addition to Petrobras, the Empiricus analyst points to other opportunities in the oil and gas sector, both domestically and abroad. These include the shares of 3R Petroleum (RRRP3), which focuses on mature oil field operations, and sector ETFs, in addition to BDRs from oil companies such as BP.
For RB Investimentos’ strategist, anyone who is now going to invest in the oil and gas sector – and has a more moderate profile – can start investing in investment funds. For those with a more aggressive profile and who have some background in the Exchange’s business, he recommends the same thing as: spies: opt for ETFs, funds that replicate the performance of a benchmark.
PetroRio (PRIO3) as an alternative
Barbosa, of Nord Research, points to the shares of PetroRio (PRIO3), an independent oil and gas company, as one of the highlights in the local market.
“It’s about one-hundredth of Petrobras, produces 1% of its volume, but has staggering growth. With no government dependency and with very high potential, what we see is a business that grows through the purchase of mature oil fields,” he explains.
On Friday (5), PetroRio announced that the consortia in which it participates had been chosen to enter into exclusive negotiations on the final terms for the purchase of the Albacora and Albacora Leste fields, which are owned by Petrobras. There is the possibility to make a final offer on the assets, in the Campos Basin.
The information pleased the market and caused the stock to end the day at 17.87%. After winning the two fields, the company will triple production, according to Barbosa.
Fixed income securities linked to the IPCA
If you have a very conservative profile, but still want to take advantage of the high oil price, according to the strategist of RB Investimentos, there is another option. Investors may have fixed income investments in their portfolio that are linked to the IPCA.
“When the oil price rises, everyone feels the rise, which is passed on to prices, that is, with an impact on inflation. That’s why fixed income can be a safer alternative,” Cruz says.
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Sources 2/ https://playcrazygame.com/2021/11/28/fuels-on-the-rise-see-options-to-profit-on-the-stock-exchange-in-addition-to-petrobras-11-28-2021/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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