COVID cases rise in South Africa as a sign of the Omicron wave coming

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South Africa has alerted the world to the Omicron variant. Now the data from South Africa can serve as a warning about what we are up against.

Leading the news: South Africa recorded 11,535 new cases on Thursday with 22.4% of return tests positive – up from an average of around 300 new cases, with a test positivity rate of 2% 10 days earlier. The country’s top public health officials expect this exponential increase to continue as Omicron quickly becomes the dominant variant.

Meanwhile, preliminary evidence from the South African National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) suggests that people previously infected with COVID-19 are three times more likely to be re-infected with Omicron than with previous strains. Omicron, ”said Anne von Gottberg, who heads the Respiratory Disease Lab at NICD. “We believe the number of cases will increase exponentially in all provinces of the country. We believe vaccines will continue to protect against serious illness, however.” The NICD study did not examine the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing infection. Experts fear that the high number of mutations in Omicron will make the vaccines considerably less effective.

Next step: We will soon have an idea of ​​how infectious the Omicron is compared to previous strains, experts say, but it will take longer to determine if it is causing more serious disease.

Zoom in: Johannesburg’s shops and restaurants remain crowded, reports BBC’s Pumza Fihlani, and President Cyril Ramaphosa is resisting the idea of ​​further closures, instead stressing the need to speed up vaccination.

24% of South Africans and 41% of adults are currently vaccinated in the country – among the highest rates in Africa but far behind many wealthy countries. Supply has long been the main obstacle, but Ramaphosa is now focusing on reducing vaccine reluctance. In a televised address on Sunday, he announced “consultations” on the possibility of “making vaccination compulsory for specific activities and locations”. was down for several weeks but has started to rise since the new variant was announced.

Zoom out: The Omicron threat has convinced countries to move forward with policies to encourage or mandate vaccination.

The German government on Thursday announced a “lockdown of the unvaccinated” – barring them from all businesses except essential businesses like grocery stores and pharmacies – and said a national vaccination mandate could go into effect in February 2022. Greece plans to vaccinate residents over 60 or pay a monthly fine.

The big picture: Many rich world leaders, including President Biden, rule out further lockdowns but advocate booster shots, rapid tests and masks.

Omicron’s clearest effect to date is with travel, with bans continuing to be announced (mostly in southern Africa) and with potential tourists from around the world reconsidering their plans.

Even beyond COVID-19, border controls will increasingly become a weapon against infectious diseases – whether or not public health experts agree they are effective, writes Bryan Walsh of Axios.

Note: it emerged on Tuesday that a case of Omicron had been detected in the Netherlands on November 19, a few days before the detection of the variant was announced by South African scientists.

Go Further: Omicron Shakes Holiday Travel Plans

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