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Hello. Here is what happens:
Price: Bitcoin continued its 2023, topping $23,000 for the first time since August before pulling back to trade at around $22,750.
Insights: Microsoft has effectively left the metaverse. Will Apple succeed where other big tech companies have struggled in the space?
Prices
CoinDesk Market Index (CMI)
1,083.23
+7.3 0.7%
Bitcoin (BTC)
$22,757
20.1 0.1%
Ethereum (ETH)
$1,639
+15.7 1.0%
S&P 500 daily close
3,972.61
+73.8 1.9%
Gold
$1,933
+6.6 0.3%
10-year Treasury yield
3.48%
0.1
BTC/ETH Price by CoinDesk Indices; gold is the COMEX spot price. Prices from around 4 p.m. ET
Bitcoin Spurt Weekend Passed $23,000
By James Rubin
Bitcoin continued its recent momentum over the weekend, rising over $23,000 at one point, the first time BTC broke above the threshold since early August before pulling back on Sunday evening.
The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was recently trading above $22,750, roughly flat over the past 24 hours but up more than 8% over the past week. Bitcoin has risen around 37% this year as investors dismiss various headwinds from the crypto industry, most recently Genesis Global Holdco LLC filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, albeit in an e e-mail to CoinDesk, Joe DiPasquale, CEO of crypto fund manager BitBull Capital, said the upside was typical of early quarters and noted “a long period of consolidation that saw shorts pile up.”
“The market rose which partially fueled the squeeze,” DiPasquale wrote, adding cautiously that “Bitcoin and several altcoins are overheated and need to undergo a correction.” We wouldn’t be surprised to see Bitcoin test $20,000 in the next few days.”
“For the week ahead, market participants should be aware of downside risks and potentially look to take profits.”
Ether followed a similar trajectory over the weekend and recently changed hands near $1,640, up about 1% from the same time on Saturday. The second-largest crypto by market value is up around 4.5% in the past week and 35% since Dec. 31.
The story continues
Most other major cryptos have taken on a light green hue, although AXS, the Axie Infinity gaming platform token Axie Infinity, and YGG, the native crypto for gaming guild to earn, Yield Guild Games, increased by more than 38% and 18%, respectively. The CoinDesk Market Index (CMI), a measure of market performance for major cryptos, rose slightly.
Cryptos weekend rise followed a positive Friday for stock indices, the Nasdaq and S&P 500, which have a strong tech component, jumped 2.6% and 1.8%, respectively. Traditional asset markets have been optimistically eyeing the growing evidence that inflation is falling without plunging the economy into a deep recession, and hope the US central bank will bring its next interest rate hike back to 25 basis points ( bp) compared to its most recent diet of 75 and 50 bps increases.
Meanwhile, Signature Bank will not process crypto transactions over $100,000, according to a Bloomberg report that cites a statement from exchange giant Binance. In a statement to Bloomberg, Binance said Signature, which was seeking to reduce its exposure to crypto markets, would “no longer be supporting any crypto exchange clients with purchases and amounts well below $100,000 as of February 1. 2023”. Binance said this would be “the case for all Signature crypto exchange clients” and noted that some users may “not be able to use SWIFT bank transfers to buy or sell crypto with/ for USD” if the amounts are lower.
Over the past few weeks, Signature, which has ranked among the most crypto-friendly banks, and other financial services firms have reduced their exposure to crypto, amid growing fallout from the implosion of the FTX crypto exchange. In December, Signature’s CEO said the bank would reduce its cryptocurrency-related deposits by $8 billion to $10 billion.
Almost a quarter of New York-based banks’ $103 billion total deposits, or about 23.5%, came from the crypto industry in September 2022. But given the recent issues in the space, Signature will reduce that amount to less than 20% and potentially less than 15% eventually, Signature’s Joe DePaolo told an investor conference hosted by investment bank Goldman Sachs.
Despite his cautious outlook for the week, BitBull’s DiPasquale was more bullish on “the crypto market’s risk appetite.”
“This is a positive sign for an eventual recovery, but we believe this may take longer and could materialize by the end of the year,” he wrote.
The biggest winnersThe biggest losersInsights
Microsoft is leaving the mixed reality space at least for now
By Sam Reynolds
Big tech is making massive workforce reductions, and Microsoft is no exception. While layoffs were expected at the IT giant as it trails the rest of its peers, they impacted one specific segment of the business, which could impact exactly what looks like the future metaverse idea.
As Windows Central reports, Microsoft has laid off its entire mixed reality team, which was behind its virtual reality, augmented reality, and HoloLens enterprise-focused augmented reality headset efforts. This includes AltSpace VR, Microsoft’s social virtual reality platform that competes with Horizon Worlds.
Microsoft called its augmented and virtual reality efforts mixed reality, and given the size and scale of the company, it probably had the best chance of turning it into a new computing paradigm. Microsoft Teams, widely used for collaboration, was fully integrated into HoloLens in December.
But the Metaverse turned out to be a struggle for Microsoft.
While Meta (not Facebook) opted for the business side of virtual reality and the metaverse, Microsoft opted for enterprise users. The first corporate customer for HoloLens was supposed to be the US military, but Congress isn’t so keen on the idea because test results have been mixed, leading to limited funding. The head of HoloLens at Microsoft left around the middle of the year.
If you’re optimistic that the metaverse includes some sort of virtual reality headset, that’s not very good for this thesis.
The struggle to catch up
VR/AR is far from new, but found new energy when venture capitalists coined the term metaverse (to be sure, metaverse doesn’t necessarily need to include VR or AR).
In the world of gaming, virtual reality has struggled to evolve beyond its status as a niche product. Headset sales have grown since their widespread introduction in 2016, but that growth has slowed. At the end of December, consulting firm IDC released a new forecast for AR/VR headsets that shows slowing growth for the medium.
Enterprise should have been where VR/AR and therefore the Metaverse succeeded. But that doesn’t really seem to have caught on either. Microsoft chose to cut those teams when it needed to cut spending because executives, privy to the nonpublic numbers and discussions with potential customers, apparently didn’t see the value of the medium.
The problem not mentioned here is the presence of Apple. Apple has the potential ability to create a market for a product that others have tried and struggled to make. Remember, the iPhone wasn’t the first smartphone. Palm, Microsoft and Nokia had Internet-connected PDAs and phones before Apple entered the arena. But all of these were largely forgettable compared to the iPhone.
Apple still plans to enter the metaverse in 2024-2025 with a mixed reality headset, according to a Bloomberg report. Its original plan to build AR glasses was postponed due to technical issues, but the company is still committed.
By the time Apple enters the market, possibly in 2025, VR/AR would have been around for a decade. Any other medium with such limited performance would qualify as a niche, and the market would evolve, without paying much attention to it. The question is, can Apple change this where Microsoft and HTC have struggled?
The idea of the metaverse with a headset displaying a form of virtualized reality relies on that.
Important events.
9:30 p.m. HKT/SGT (1:30 p.m. UTC) Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December)
23:00 HKT/SGT (15:00 UTC) European Commission Consumer Confidence (January)
06:00 HKT/SGT (22:00 UTC) Australia S&P Global Services PMI (January)
CoinDesk TV
In case you missed it, here’s the most recent episode of “First Mover” on CoinDesk TV:
Genesis Crypto Lending Firms File For Bankruptcy, Winklevoss Threatens Lawsuit Against DCG
Bitcoin (BTC) held around $21,000 as Genesis Global Holdco LLC, the holding company of struggling cryptocurrency lender Genesis Global Capital, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. when Gemini CEO Cameron Winklevoss threatened to sue Digital Currency Group (DCG). DCG owns Genesis and CoinDesk. CoinDesk News Desk Editor Danny Nelson and Wilk Auslander LLP Partner Eric Snyder joined “First Mover” for a chat. Additionally, Thomas Moser of the Swiss National Bank and Carbonbase CEO Max Song spoke with Christine Lee of CoinDesk of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Securities
Genesis Claims $5.1 Billion in Liabilities in Day One Bankruptcy Filing: Three of the institutional crypto brokerage entities filed for Chapter 11 protection Thursday night.
Crypto Lender Genesis is FTX’s largest unsecured creditor with $226 million in claims: Genesis Global Capital topped the revised list which did not redact the names of several creditors.
Crypto analysts warn against shorting DYDX before $200 million token unlock: The token unlock, which will take place on February 2, will release 150 million coins worth approximately $200 million and 15% of total supply.
Fantom Blockchain to fund ecosystem projects using a portion of burnt FTM fees: The fund aims to empower builders on Fantom by providing a decentralized pathway to fund projects, ideas and creations through a community decision-making process.
Digital Currency Group owes subsidiary Genesis Global more than $1.65 billion
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