Intelligence Analysts ‘Don’t Understand Donald Trump, How Far Will He Go’

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In this daily series, Newsweek explores the steps that led to the January 6 Capitol Riot.

On Saturday, Nov. 28, according to local news site New Jersey.com, a “Stop the Steal” caravan involving dozens of demonstrators traveled across the state for several hours to support Donald Trump and his henchmen. election claim. The caravan ended at the home of Governor Phil Murphy, where protesters moved to criticize the COVID closures, calling for the reopening of New Jersey. Decorated with Trump flags and signs, the caravan moved to the sound of encouragement horns.

This is just a protest, not worthy of national attention. According to MSA Security, “a private security company, eight protests were planned for that Saturday, in California, New York, and Oregon.” Federal law enforcement and intelligence agencies reportedly warned officials more high chance of political violence amid ongoing election disputes. , “the company said.” Calls for civil unrest and possible violence have flooded social media, “the company said.

There is no visible evidence that anyone was warned. Neither the FBI nor the Department of Homeland Security kept a nationwide list of demonstrations. The FBI’s efforts are focused on specific acts of potential terrorism, specifically bombings and other catastrophic attacks. DHS serves a nationwide network of state and urban-level fusion centers, providing them with open-source and investigative information. The main focus is on predicting threats to law enforcement and “critical infrastructure, but also cravings for new threats, such as outs to unmanned aerial systems (drones).”

“DHS doesn’t report on the first manifestations of change,” a contractor working in the domestic intelligence world told Newsweek. He requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about government intelligence gathering and reporting. The first label amendment, the contractor said, was neither fictional nor material. “Balancing monitoring and protecting people’s rights to protest is an ongoing struggle. So naturally the intelligence system is attracted to safer and less controversial topics.”

Intelligence analysts “don’t understand Donald Trump, how far he’s going.” President Trump thumbs up to supporters from this motorcade on November 22, 2020 in Sterling, Virginia. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Image

One organization focused on nationwide protests and tracking trends is the U.S. Crisis Monitor at Princeton University. Their Regional Overview: The United States reported, 22-28 November 2020 that demonstrations dropped by half for the week, compared to the previous week. “Demonstrations have dropped generally in the weeks since the election,” Crisis Monitor reported. When Donald Trump officially allowed the transition process to begin, the report said, “the total number of election -related demonstrations was significantly reduced.” Election -related demonstrations dropped from a high of more than 300 in election week “to less than a tenth of that number last week.”

Crisis Monitor reported that the majority of demonstrations across the country (just over half) were not election -related but focused on COVID. However, even there, coronavirus -related events remained lower than the levels seen earlier in the year. More than half of these COVID demonstrations, the report says, were against government regulations and state -level restrictions. Demonstrations in support of government measures accounted for 40 per cent of all demonstration events associated with COVID.

The “Stop the Steal” demonstrations, the report said, “seem to have lost momentum.” Groups such as Proud Boys and Three Percenters are increasingly visible, with the group present at more than a quarter of election-related demonstrations. “Other armed militia groups” —including the New York Watchmen and Patriot Prayer — were present at various demonstrations around the country.

“Nearly two dozen demonstrations associated with BLM [Black Lives Matter] the movement was recorded during the week, ”the report said, which was also a significant decrease.

When these numbers were presented, the homeland security contractor said most of the decline was likely related to the Thanksgiving holiday and did not reflect an actual threat in the long run. He said the Nov. 14 rally in Washington was dismissed by most observers and analysts, that the demonstration itself was “a bust,” and was also dominated by some violent agitators. “I don’t think we can say that any insurrection or seditious activity is still developing.”

Did the FBI or homeland security ignore the right-wing protesters because there were analysts who sympathized with their cause? The contractor did not subscribe to that idea. “Did half vote for Donald Trump?” he asked rhetorically. “Maybe so and maybe more.” But he felt that in the ranks, the workers were cautiously impartial, interested as much as defining a right wing as a threat to the left in government.

“I can’t say the same for homeland security leadership,” he said, “and that certainly influenced how far the preparations went.” But then, he said, “intelligence and law enforcement analysts also don’t understand Donald Trump, how far he’s going. Because when it comes to threats to governance and the Constitution of those actually in power, no one in the federal government really has a responsibility to prevent that. “

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