Why Donald Trump is so popular a topic among Democrats

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Since first declaring his candidacy for president in early 2015, Donald Trump has been a favorite topic of discussion among Democrats.

He is regularly featured on CNN and MSNBC, the two most prominent left-of-center cable news networks. His latest antics, peccadilloes, and threats to the constitutional order have been frequently featured in The New York Times and The Washington Post, while being constantly attacked by Democratic politicians.

In contrast, the mainstream Republican media and politicians have been remarkably quiet about Trump of late, despite his recent presidency and continued bright standing among their own party’s voters in national opinion polls.

Former US President Donald Trump declared his bid to return to the White House in the 2024 presidential election on Nov. 15, 2022 in front of a large crowd gathered at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. (Kyodo) ==Kyodo

Most Democratic leaders and commentators clearly hate Trump personally and reject almost everything he stands for. They see him as corrupt and immoral because of his corporate manipulations, his refusal to release personal income tax returns and his treatment of women.

They see him as a threat to constitutional governance, and indeed to American democracy itself, because of his apparent incitement for the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol; his refusal to return classified documents; and his outright rejection of legitimate election results. Some also see him as ethnically discriminatory, given his recent association with known and avowed anti-Semites.

I see two important reasons why Democrats, however, continue to focus on Trump as a favorite topic of public discussion.

Kent E. Calder.

First of all, many see Trump as a certain vulnerable candidate and disruptor within his own party, who they are confident they will defeat in 2024, and therefore want to encourage him to run. And second, from a shorter-term tactical perspective, attacking Trump alleviates important political problems for Democrats within their own party.

Trump’s ability to improve democratic political fortunes, and on the contrary to hurt Republicans, is clearly demonstrated in the returns of the mid-term elections in November 2022.

Contrary to historical precedent, where the party outside the White House usually gets a large number of seats, the Republicans failed this time to control the Senate, losing important races in Pennsylvania and Georgia. And they only got the majority of the House of Representatives by an unexpectedly narrow margin of nine seats, 223 to 212.

Trump’s intervention in choosing unelectable candidates who are personally loyal to him, as well as his own rejection of the 2020 election, is widely considered the main reason for the unexpected Republican defeats, which of course is the opposite. Democrats cheered.

Going forward, Trump’s candidacy seems likely to please President Joe Biden in particular, as it gives momentum to Biden’s own complicated prospects. Biden, after all, actually beat Trump, and recent polls consistently give him higher approval ratings than Trump.

Biden just celebrated his 80th birthday, however, and will be 86 at the completion of his second term, if re-elected. If he cannot complete a second term, the current prospect is Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him.

His popularity is significantly lower than Biden’s, and he has many potential intraparty rivals, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom; Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer; Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttegieg; and Senator Amy Klobuchar.

That’s why the political currents within the Democratic Party, both regarding President Biden and Vice President Harris, are complicated.

Biden apparently wants to run for re-election and recently changed the order of the 2024 Democratic primaries, putting South Carolina first, where he is most popular, to improve his chances.

The recently declared candidacy of Trump strengthens the action of Biden to make such changes, postponements and possible removal of internal conflicts within the Democratic ranks that may arise.

Trump’s candidacy pleased many Democrats in other ways. This, of course, gives them an opportunity to hold the attractive moral high ground and gain the support of independents, as well as some Republicans, who personally oppose Trump.

And Trump’s strength in the populist segment of the Republican base, as well as name recognition, makes it difficult for more moderate and conventional potential Republican candidates, from former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley , to gain traction.

The Florida Gov. Ronald DeSantis, Trump’s only real potential rival for the Republican base, is a potential alternative, but is only 44 years old, so can afford to wait. And he could be deterred from running in 2024 by the risk of a primary battle with Trump within the Republican Party, a prospect that Democrats also relish.

DeSantis won a landslide victory last month in his bid for re-election as Florida governor, even as Republicans suffered a surprising number of setbacks across the country.

He has an intelligent, charismatic wife, successfully recovered from breast cancer; an attractive young family; a populist appeal similar to Trump’s; no apparent scandals; and a Harvard law degree.

Many observers feel that DeSantis could ultimately win a head-to-head battle with Trump, given his own formidable credentials, and Trump’s popularity.

Instead, the bigger risk to a DeSantis candidacy in 2024 may be the prospect of Trump leaving the Republican Party, and running a third-party candidacy, if he loses to DeSantis.

Trump, after all, has for many years been a Democrat, and has never shown clear loyalty to the Republican Party or its other leaders, when such loyalty to the party threatens his interests.

Trump’s enormous ego also makes it difficult for him to accept defeat, and a third-party candidacy could be a way for him to continue his struggle in hopes of eventual victory.

A third-party Trump move, against DeSantis or any other Republican candidate who could beat him in the primary elections, would of course please Democrats, as it would seriously divide the Republican ranks.

History shows that in American politics third-party movements cannot win, but can easily play a deadly spoiler role. In 1912, for example, ex-President Theodore Roosevelt, a Republican, launched the “Bull Moose” third-party movement, after incumbent President William Howard Taft was defeated. Roosevelt’s efforts resulted in the election of Democrat Woodrow Wilson, the opponent of Roosevelt and Taft.

Democrats a century later can expect a similar result in 2024, where a third-party Trump movement against Republican candidate DeSantis re-elects an 82-year-old President Biden.

It’s no wonder that Democrats are trying their best to prop up the candidacy of a declining Trump, despite — or indeed because of — all his shortcomings.

(Kent E. Calder is the director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.)

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