Analysis: Trump grapples with new abortion politics as successful March for Life comes to Washington

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CNN —

The anti-abortion March for Life has for decades shown Republicans that they can’t get to the Oval Office without the support of the anti-abortion movement.

On Friday, marchers will gather in Washington with a decades-old mission accomplished, after the Supreme Court stripped a constitutional right to abortion by overturning the Roe v. Wade last year.

This means that this people’s march is a time for celebration but also for debate about where the movement will go next with some campaigners seeking to restrict the method everywhere. But such a refocused goal carries great risks. After all, Democrats have of late used their own energy to throw out the midterm elections as a backlash against the right-wing Supreme Court majority that helped prevent a huge Republican midterm election wave.

The March for Life also comes at a rare moment when Donald Trump, the president who did most to end Roe after a deal with socially conservative voters that helped win him the 2016 GOP nomination, launched in a rare attack on evangelical leaders he sees as insufficiently faithful, as CNN’s Gabby Orr, Kristen Holmes and Kaitlan Collins reported this week.

No one has done more for the Right to Life than Donald Trump. I put in three Supreme Court justices, all of whom voted, and they got something that they’ve been fighting for for 64 years, for many, many years, Trump said in an interview with Real Americas Voice on Monday , which refers to the reversal of federal abortion rights.

There is great betrayal in the world of politics and that is a sign of dishonesty, Trump told conservative journalist David Brody.

The comment is a window into Trumps psychology, revealing his transactional understanding of politics and his highly developed sense of fealty that he sees himself as owed.

The former president was particularly angered by the failure to immediately endorse his 2024 White House bid by several evangelical leaders who remain influential figures in the conservative movement. Trump’s third run at the White House has so far failed to gain significant energy.

But Trump has also shown signs recently of questioning whether his biggest domestic achievement, building a generational conservative Supreme Court majority and its subsequent overturning of Roe, could hinder his hopes of returning to White House. House in 2025. He wrote on his Truth Social platform earlier this month that the abortion issue has not been handled well by many Republicans, especially those who insist there are no exceptions in the case of rape, incest or life. of the mother, who he said lost a large number of voters.

The former president’s comments were backed up by exit polls from the November midterms that showed more than a quarter of voters listing abortion as a top issue. About 61% said they were unhappy with the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, and about 7 in 10 of those voters supported a Democratic House candidate.

In his comments to Truth Social, Trump appeared to seek to deflect blame for Republicans’ failure to recapture the Senate and the parties’ smaller-than-expected House majority. Trump faced waves of criticism after the election for promoting extreme, election-denying candidates who often lost swing states in midterm elections.

But Trump is noticeably navigating the changing politics of abortion and seems to be gauging how it will affect his future political prospects. After all, he was unapologetically pro-choice before his foray into Republican politics dictated a shift in position and led to a deal with evangelicals, which included an effective pledge to appoint anti-abortion justices to the Supreme Court. in exchange for the important votes of social conservatives.

In the past, Trump has been a fixture of March for Life rallies, and in 2020, he became the first sitting president to attend in person as he prepares for his re-election race. He told marchers that unborn children have never had a stronger defender in the White House.

There is no indication yet that he will call Friday’s event, which will include a detour to the US Capitol on its usual route to the Supreme Court to underscore how Congress is now a focus of the movement, as Democrats seek to codify Roe v. Make protections law.

Trump’s comments on abortion and his feud with evangelical leaders raise the question of whether the former president has made a tactical error and is hurting his 2024 candidacy by targeting a critical that voting bloc in the GOP primary at a time when there are growing questions about whether he is still the dominant force in Republican politics.

Ralph Reed, the executive director of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, told CNN there is no path to the nomination without winning the evangelical vote. No one knows that better than President Trump because, to the surprise of almost everyone, he won their support in 2016.

This question is particularly acute in Iowa, the first-in-the-nation caucuses for Republicans at least in the 2024 primary season, which will be the first test of former Presidents to hold conservatives and evangelicals especially already.

Trump didn’t actually win Iowa in 2016, finishing second to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and just defeated Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and the state has often not been a true barometer of how the GOP nomination contest will go.

However, it will take on added importance in 2024 and will likely be seen as a strong indicator of Trumps appeal to the conservative base. A loss there will create a painful narrative as he heads into the next contests especially since he carried the state strongly in the 2016 and 2020 general elections.

And it’s easy to come up with a list of potential GOP candidates who could have appeal in the state if they challenge Trump, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, former Vice President Mike Pence or Cruz again. Trump is currently the only declared 2024 Republican presidential candidate.

Trump is in a unique situation in 2024, because in many ways he is effectively in office because of his strong GOP support and the fact that he didn’t leave after losing re-election. But at the same time, he is not a sitting president and seems likely to face a contested primary and thus may be more exposed in the early contests.

However, while some conservative voter bases may want to move on, there is still strong goodwill among many toward Trump, gratitude for the change he has brought during his term and admiration for his attitude.

A lot of people have forgiven him for his misstatements and his missteps because they generally like his ability to fight back, even if that has become a cliché for some people, Trumps detractors, said Timothy Hagle, an associate professor in political science at the University of Iowa who is an expert on state politics.

This gets to a point that is often missed about Trump. For many of his supporters, he offered an emotional as much as a political connection. His willingness to say what many conservative grassroots think and to attack institutions they despise, such as the media or Washington pundits and other elites, is as important as many of his often unrecognized individuals. political position.

And it also often forgets that evangelical voters in places like Iowa don’t necessarily vote as a bloc, or according to what their leaders or pastors recommend and may prioritize issues like taxes over social questions whether a candidate is considered universally acceptable. That could give Trump more leeway than more mainstream candidates in departing from traditional conservative orthodoxy even on abortion.

However, Hagle said, even a small number of disaffected voters in Iowa could make a difference in Trump’s chances in the state if they don’t turn out for him, as could more mainstream GOP caucus voters. who may be looking at other aspects of his candidacy and potential rivals.

Will they support Trump because he is fighting, or because of his position on the economy or his position on the border? Hagle said. The abortion stuff might not be as important to them, or would they go in a different direction at this point?

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