Trump is ready for a CPAC love fest or face plant. There is no interval.

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There are already signs that this year’s CPAC could be off to a rocky start. Some Republicans are predicting lower turnout, and at least two attendees said they were contacted this week about buying $375 tickets to the marquee Ronald Reagan Dinner, hosted by the Trump acolyte and former gubernatorial candidate. of Arizona Kari Lake.

Trump hopes to lock in a straw poll of the 2024 Republican field again this year. His speech on Saturday night to a hall of adoring supporters – likely to last more than an hour – will conclude the four-day event. For Trump, being greeted by a sea of ​​red hats and oversized cardboard cutouts will provide visuals that prove he remains the leader of the conservative movement. This year’s CPAC isn’t designed for a wide field of potential presidential candidates to court voters — it’s Trump’s chance to position himself as inevitable.

His likely top rival in a GOP primary, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, skipped CPAC along with other potential 2024 candidates and top Republican officials. Former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott will gather with DeSantis and other GOP presidential hopefuls behind closed doors at The Breakers, a luxury resort in Palm Beach, to address donors at a retreat hosted by the anti-tax group Club for Growth. Trump was not invited to attend.

Former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, the other two main declared presidential contenders, are the only candidates to attend both gatherings.

CPAC has long been ground zero for grassroots Republican activists and will attract a broad spectrum of conservative leaders. But during the Trump years, it effectively became an arm of the MAGA movement, fully reflecting the populist, America First wing of the party. Among the panels at this year’s event were Trump-themed sessions such as “Finish the Wall, Build the Dome,” and “They Legally Stole It From Us,” in reference to the 2020 election.

CPAC’s pull with establishment Republicans appears to have weakened not only because the organization is close to Trump. The conservative group is also navigating a serious public relations crisis as its chairman, Matt Schlapp, faces allegations of sexual assault from a GOP campaign staffer. The alleged victim, a former employee of Herschel Walker’s Senate campaign, sued Schlapp and his wife, Mercedes, in January for nearly $10 million. The couple denied wrongdoing.

CPAC welcomed Trump with open arms for his first public appearance in 2021 after he left the White House in disgrace following the January 6 uprising. But his association with the gathering dates back to 2011. And four months before he announced his 2015 presidential bid, Trump tested his populist campaign message on the CPAC stage, telling the crowd of activists they were his “kind of people.”

“I love you people… You are conservative, you work, you love the country. It’s very simple,” Trump said.

A spokesman for Trump called CPAC “the embodiment of the conservative movement as well as the Republican Party, and the undisputed political leader here is President Trump.”

“The conference always represents the ‘springboard’ for the presidential primary season, and President Trump’s enormous influence at this year’s conference combined with his recent success in the polls shows how dominant his candidacy is as we approach 2024,” said of the speaker in a statement.

This year’s CPAC speakers included a host of Republican senators who are allies of Trump, including three who have already endorsed him for president: Sens. Tommy Tuberville, JD Vance, and Eric Schmitt. And notably, the only member of the Republican leadership speaking at CPAC this year was Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, who was one of the first to endorse Trump’s 2024 run. Right-wing commentator Candace Owens, MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, and former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro are also listed as featured speakers.

A super PAC supporting Trump, MAGA Inc., is among the CPAC exhibitors and will host a private reception Saturday before Trump’s speech.

Other party stars effectively ceded the event to the former president, who opted to skip this year’s festivities altogether. This includes the chair of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel, who a year ago called the energy at the conference “amazing” after taking the stage in Orlando. At the time, the RNC was a sponsor of CPAC. The committee did not seek sponsorship this year.

It’s unclear whether McDaniel received an invitation to speak at this year’s CPAC — representatives for both camps did not immediately respond to a request for comment. At the winter meeting of the RNC in Dana Point, Calif. in January, Schlapp was scheduled to attend as a guest of a supporter of Harmeet Dhillon, McDaniel’s challenger in his re-election bid for the seat. Schlapp ultimately did not attend the event, which took place shortly after he was indicted on sexual assault charges.

Also skipping CPAC this year is Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, another Republican considered a potential presidential candidate. Carney, who serves as a consultant to Abbott, said the governor is only participating in state events until the legislative session ends in June. Abbott spoke at the start of CPAC’s August convention in Dallas.

And while a cast of Fox News stars have studded conservative conferences in recent months — Sean Hannity at CPAC Dallas in August, and both Tucker Carlson and Laura Ingraham at the year-end Turning Point USA in Phoenix — none among high-profile commentators is set to appear this weekend. Fox Nation, the network’s digital streaming platform, is also not listed as a sponsor this year, as usual.

Schlapps has been notably absent from Fox’s airwaves since the allegations surfaced. And in recent weeks, the couple has taken to right-wing news services like Newsmax and Steve Bannon’s “War Room” to drum up buzz about this year’s CPAC event.

CPAC’s annual presidential straw poll is guaranteed to receive media attention. The poll, conducted by secret ballot, and the results of which were released over the weekend, will ask conference attendees their preferences in a mock 2024 presidential GOP primary. But without DeSantis, Pence, Scott or other potential 2024 hopefuls speaking at the event, it’s unclear how indicative the poll is of broad Republican thinking.

“The straw poll is going to be a less accurate indication of where the grassroots are than it has been in years because without DeSantis, Trump is the only big-name speaker going here,” said a Republican strategist who regularly attends. CPAC. “You have to take the results with a grain of salt.”

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