Maggie Haberman on Donald Trump

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Donald Trump is expected to fly to New York this week from his Florida home to be arrested. At this time, the specific charges are unknown because the indictment is under seal, but they relate to his role in paying hush money during the 2016 presidential campaign to cover up an extramarital affair.

To help you prepare for next week, I spoke with my colleague Maggie Haberman, known for her behind-the-scenes reporting on Trump.

David: You reported that Trump and his aides were shocked by the news and don’t expect an indictment for weeks — if ever. What’s the atmosphere like at Mar-a-Lago the next few days?

Maggie: They’re still trying to assess what’s going on in some areas. One is the political field, which I would say they are most prepared for.

Another was the legal front, which was messy because his team had a lot of infighting, and there was finger pointing about why they were caught off guard. Attorneys still don’t know the charges because it’s a sealed indictment.

Finally, there is the emotional front. While Trump is not said to be throwing things, he is very angry and his family, unsurprisingly, is in turmoil.

The other cases

David: My instinct is that this indictment could lead to an indictment in one of the other cases — the investigations into Trump’s actions in Georgia after the 2020 election, his involvement in the January 6 attack and the his handling of classified documents — more likely. After all, one of the issues that seems to give prosecutors pause is the idea of ​​being the first to indict a former president. That potential barrier is gone. No one knows what happens in other cases, but does that basic dynamic seem right?

Maggie: You raise a point that some lawyers have raised in private. All prosecutors are concerned about is setting a historical precedent. And now there is a broken seal of sorts. That said, Republicans who don’t like Trump have been saying privately that they wish this case hadn’t come first because they view it as lesser than others.

David: Is there one of the other investigations that is most concerning to Trumpworld?

Maggie: Georgia has personally bothered Trump for a while, probably because there were tapes of him telling officials to look for votes. Some of his aides are very concerned about the investigation of documents that the Justice Department has. It’s a clearer issue, and a federal judge who oversees grand jury matters indicated in a recent ruling that he takes the government’s claims seriously.

David: Trump has faced major legal threats in his business career in the past and has always survived criminal charges. How does this compare to previous threats?

Donald Trump’s Impeachment in New York

Maggie: Trump has been trying to avoid impeachment since he was first criminally investigated in the 1970s. He has actually faced no serious criminal legal threat since then. Instead he operated in a world where so much was based on machine politics and what Marie Brenner, the journalist, described as the “favor economy” of New York.

A project involving two of his children was investigated by the Manhattan district attorney about a decade ago, but for various reasons there were no indictments. Then, when he was president, he was protected because of a Justice Department opinion against indicting a sitting president. It is worth remembering that his company was convicted on 17 counts of tax fraud and other crimes last year. So it was something of a slow roll.

Trump up, DeSantis down

David: The last few weeks of Republican primary polls look good for Trump: He’s up, and Ron DeSantis is down. Depending on which polls you believe, Trump either has a big lead or the two are close. Indictment aside, why do Trump and his team think he’s sunk? And how do they see the politics of an indictment playing out?

Maggie: I think almost every national poll shows Trump with a big lead. Early polls aren’t great predictors, but they’re a snapshot of what has become a relatively solid support Trump has among Republican primary voters.

Trump’s team thinks it’s been a pretty good few months politically — it has, in fairness — and DeSantis has struggled to gain traction. That’s notable because DeSantis is on a book tour. Trump’s team believes this indictment will help him raise money and may give him some leverage — and perhaps political antibodies when and if future indictments come from other investigations. .

It wasn’t lost on Trump’s team that DeSantis — after trying to play down the possible indictment as an issue voters care about and speaking about it later than other Republicans — rushed out with a statement as soon as the an accusation attacking it as “un-American” and saying that Florida can’t help extradite Trump. That tells you a lot about Trump’s grip.

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