Trump’s rise in the GOP polls is good news — for Biden

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Ex-President Donald Trump is surging in the polls for the 2024 GOP nomination, and fund-raising big-time, in the wake of Manhattan DA Alvin Braggs blatantly political indictment.

That’s good news. . . for President Joe Biden, and Democrats in general.

In the Real Clear Politics polling average, Biden has 42.1% favor, 52.4% disfavor: Republicans will clearly beat him in 2024.

But probably not if they nominated Trump, who stood at 38.4% favorable, 55.8% unfavorable, for a net -17 points.

Even Trumps presidency has been largely successful (with an asterisk on COVID), while Bidens has been an utter disaster.

The trend? Take the YouGov poll, where The Donald does better than most: The last few have net favorability at -8 (4/8-11), -9 (3/26-28), -14 (3 /19-21). ), -8 (3/11-14) and -15 (3/4-7); he was -12 back on January 19-21.

In other words, even a bare-bones political accusation by a Democratic county DA isn’t enough to put him in positive territory: Trump is too established a figure to change what people think of him.

Almost every other Republican, meanwhile, has plenty of available upside.

Yes, the polls are far from everything; its months before the first GOP debate, months before Iowa and New Hampshire vote and nearly 19 months before Election Day 2024.

President Biden still has a higher favorability rating than Trump, according to several polls. Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images

Bidens term may prove even more damaging by then; it is not impossible for him to beat Trump.

But even if Biden is in free-fall next November, Trump is still making for a terrible nominee, because it’s so easy for Democrats and their allies in the media to make the race a referendum on him, not the mismanagement of those in office.

Yes, they’ll try the same with any GOP nominee but Trump, uniquely, will play along: He still hasn’t stopped talking about the stolen 2020 election and all his other grievances.

His base eats that up, and many regular Republicans sympathize. But its utterly poisonous to voters in the middle.

This isnnt about Trumps policy agenda, by the way: No one wins the GOP nomination without embracing it. After all, it worked better than the Bidens.

And, yes, is on record as believing that Trumps character, as demonstrated in the weeks after the 2020 election and especially in and around the Capitol Riot, makes him unfit.

But looking at what the general public thinks, especially the swing voters who will decide next November.

It’s not clear that the middle is entirely obtainable for a Republican loyal to the Trump agenda, any more than Trump himself.

It’s nothing personal, just the facts: The GOP’s best bet for victory in the 2024 election is to nominate someone other than Trump.

And the country cannot afford to give the Democrats another four years.

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