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Covid infections have fallen across much of the UK, official figures show, but remain high enough to put health services under “significant pressure” in the months to come, scientists warn.
The Office for National Statistics estimates that one in 65 people in England had Covid in the week ending November 13, down slightly from one in 60 the week before. A slight decline was also observed in Wales, with rates in Scotland and Northern Ireland broadly at the same level.
The new figures, which relate to community infections and exclude people hospitalized, nursing homes and other facilities, represent an increase in the number of cases sent to the mainland. Austria confined again and lead German Minister of Health to warn that a new confinement was not to be ruled out.
Cases have risen sharply since the summer in many European countries in a wave of infections which started in Eastern countries and moved steadily to the West. But as the worst-affected countries impose major restrictions to contain the tide, British ministers are sticking to Plan B measures that would bring in vaccine passports, expand the wearing of masks and encourage more people to work from home.
Ministers hope immunity is higher in England than in some other countries because of the decision to open earlier. “Covid has had more time to wash in the UK,” a government source said.
It is understood that Downing Street has been made aware of two potential scenarios. Either the colder weather could lead to a surge in cases and hospital admissions, as on the mainland – and “we suddenly have a big problem” as a government source put it – or levels of Higher immunity could allow Covid to continue circulating among unvaccinated populations including children, but without leading to increased hospitalizations and deaths. The UK’s trajectory will not be clear for a few weeks.
The government was reassured by the announcement of the significant impact of a third dose of immunity vaccine – and it is understood that ministers expect the Joint Independent Committee on Immunization and Immunization (JCVI) to ultimately recommend extending boosters to all adults.