Latvia warns of the risk of an “accident” between NATO and Russia

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The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia said that the “armament” of Belarusian emigration on its border with Lithuania as a weapon, and the impending military exercises in which Russian and Belarusian forces will participate, risk an “accident” with NATO forces in the Baltic states or Poland.

Edgars Rinkevix told the Financial Times that there is an increased chance of “misunderstandings, some actions that presidents haven’t agreed to” when Russia’s Zapad military exercises take place next month.

“You have a border crisis, you have large military exercises taking place on the borders of NATO countries, you also have an increased presence on our side, the Lithuanian side, the Estonian side, the Polish side of the border guards, military formations. Of course, this increases the possibility of accidents,” said Rinkevix.

There is growing concern in both the Baltic states and Brussels about the actions of the authoritarian regime of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko after flawed elections last year and the emergency landing of a plane inside the European Union in May to detain a journalist-activist.

Baltic officials say his latest tactic is to offer migrants from Iraq, Syria or several African countries a package that includes crossing to the Lithuanian border. More than 4,000 immigrants crossed into Lithuania this year alone, more than 50 times the number that entered last year.

This is a “highly visible case of hybrid warfare” through the deliberate use of immigration to target the European Union and Lithuania, Rinkevix said.

Migrants are already being used as a weapon. The longer we live in the 21st century, the scarier it becomes. Things that we cannot imagine can be used, are used,” he said.

Latvia’s foreign minister said he was encouraged by Iraq’s decision to suspend flights to Minsk, which, combined with a new Lithuanian border guard’s tactic to “push back” migrants towards Belarus, has led to a significant drop in the numbers crossing the border in recent days.

Tensions rise in the Baltic states every four years when annual Russian military exercises move to their western region bordering Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. But Rinkevics said this year’s Zapad drills have been particularly sensitive due to the “ongoing hybrid war element”.

He added, “Certainly, this has a high potential for accidents. Of course, if someone was planning some deliberate provocation, one could see that. But I honestly don’t think there is an interest in escalating that into a large-scale military provocation.”

Russia, which has a close union with Belarus, is one of the few supporters of Minsk. Rinkevix said he believed it was not in Moscow’s interest to be so closely linked to Lukashenko’s recent actions, which were “somewhat scandalous.”

But he said it was possible that Russia was somehow involved in Belarus’ recent actions. “It is certainly hard to imagine that this kind of action could be done without some kind of support, coordination and cooperation,” said Rinkevix.

The former head of the Estonian armed forces, MP Reho Terras, last week called on NATO to implement Article 4 on the migration crisis; This calls for consultation between members of the military alliance. Invoking it would not be as serious as Article 5, which declares an attack on one member an attack on all, but is seen as symbolizing NATO’s deep concern about an issue, and has been used by Turkey many times.

Rinkevix hinted that Latvia would support the Article 4 call in the appropriate circumstances. “If there is a real need to call for consultations with NATO allies, if we see a need for Article 4, we will use that,” he said.

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