North Shropshire electorate earthquake hands Boris Johnson a sad birthday | Boris Johnson

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If it is a cliched belief that Tories can be tough on how they treat leaders who no longer feel like electoral assets, then this can be said to be even more true of Boris Johnson, whose primary appeal to many of his deputies has been his appeal to voters. . If that goes away, he should be worried.

Their keyword is “if”. The loss of the Conservative Party to the Liberal Democrats in North Shropshire – a seat that has been held by all but two of the past 189 years – is undeniable earthquake, but the by-election has special qualities, not least the greater ability to support the opposition to coalesce around one. Ceremony.

They often hold broader lessons for governments, even those of the mid-term that can expect to receive a bit of a kick from voters at the best of times.

What worries Johnson’s aides are the numerous reports from North Shropshire of not only annoyance with the government but some personal and personal aversion to the prime minister.

It was a recurring theme of the latest major sub-electoral story, the Liberal Democrats upsetting a 16,000-strong Conservative majority in Chesham and Amersham in June, but here at least some of this can be explained by a strain of conservative global liberalism in the affluent commuter belt seat.

North Shropshire is very different: largely rural and staunchly pro-Brexit. But here, too, voters complained about the feeling that the Conservatives were taking for granted, as well as the feeling that Johnson was slippery, not serious enough.

And so, some Conservative MPs will wake up on Friday with arithmetic in mind. First, if their party can lose a seat with a majority of close to 23,000, what does this swing mean for them? Also, if voters hate the Prime Minister in Chesham, Amersham and North Shropshire, where is he still popular?

One consolation for Downing Street is that such rebellious ideas will largely not be discussed with his colleagues in Parliament, as the political meltdown of the Christmas holiday begins in the House of Commons, shutting down what may be the most politically damaging week of Johnson’s career.

It included an increase in damned publicity over two rolling stories: a string of reports of allegations of party shutdowns in Downing Street, Conservative Headquarters, and government departments; And the possibility of revealing more information about how Johnson paid for the expensive renovation of his official apartment.

Amid all this, Johnson has been spearheading the response to a huge wave of the Omicron variant of Covid-19, which has required expediting his Plan B set of restrictions, including returning to work at home, using more mask, and introducing mandatory Covid certifications to enter venues like clubs. Nightlife and soccer fields.

The latest plan was hugely unpopular among many Tory MPs, 99 of whom rebelled in Tuesday’s House of Commons vote, calling into question Johnson’s authority and ability to tighten Covid rules if, as many public health experts predict, the Omicron wave worsens. .

Some Conservatives will note that North Shropshire’s campaign has always been disingenuous for the government, given the resignation of former environment minister Owen Patterson, who broke the rules on lobbying.

But even this, many will feel, was a situation mishandled by Johnson and his advisers. Patterson stepped down only after Downing Street bailed him out by unilaterally attempting to rewrite the entire disciplinary system for MPs, prompting a slew of stories about lobbying and second jobs.

If Johnson, by contrast, had urged Patterson to quietly perform the 30-day suspension imposed as a sanction, this week would have ended and the prime minister might have entered Christmas in a happier position.

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