Not all is well in the transatlantic relationship – Politico

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Bruce Stokes is a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

January 20 marks the end of the first year of Joe Biden’s presidency, an administration that promised to honor and rebuild the transatlantic alliance after years of neglect and contempt, and which declared that “America is back.” But the subsequent experience did not reassure all Europeans.

To get a better understanding of expectations and hesitations regarding the second year of the Biden administration, I interviewed more than 50 European and American experts. And it seems that all is still not good in the transatlantic relationship.

In general, significant achievements have already been made in 2021 – the resolution of bilateral trade disputes, the launch of technological cooperation, the coordination of relations with China. “Things went well, as I would have hoped for his inauguration day,” said a former German ambassador to the United States.

“There were great expectations, especially among the [American] Europhiles, that Europe would be more of a priority in Biden’s foreign policy in general,” recalls a foreign policy analyst at a Washington think tank. “There was a sense that we would see a new day in the partnership.”

But 2021 was also a year full of friction: Afghanistan, the AUKUS defense agreement, the challenges posed by Russia and China, as well as political developments in the United States all “led to the conclusion in Europe that the relationship with the United States would never go away,” said a former US ambassador to the United States. NATO – Whether or not former President Donald Trump returns. Now the challenge for the Biden administration is to prove these fears wrong.

“You have to know that you have no friends but Europe,” warned a Polish foreign policy expert. “If you get us wrong, it undermines the American system of alliances and that is not good for the United States.” The Poles, that a deal affecting their future would be struck over their heads.

Moreover, as a former US ambassador to the European Union noted, AUKUS publicly told Europeans that “Chinese people in the White House are driving the bus. They have no appreciation for the European Union as a helpful partner on matters of interest to the United States.”

As a result, an analyst in Berlin quipped: “Anxiety, skepticism and bad cynicism about the shift to Asia are ubiquitous in Europe. The fear is that it will lead to a transatlantic breakaway.” As Washington’s attention gradually shifts to Asia, more incidents that provoke Europeans to feel abandoned or betrayed may be inevitable.

The first test for that may be Taiwan, which has opened a representative office in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius. Beijing has imposed economic sanctions on the Baltic country and threatened to block multinational companies exporting from Lithuania from accessing the Chinese market in retaliation. If Washington stands idly by while Beijing coerces EU member states and companies in this way, transatlantic cooperation on China could be a paper tiger.

More broadly, 2022 could be a test of transatlantic solidarity over economic sanctions against both Russia and China. The Russian invasion of Ukraine will almost certainly precipitate US and European sanctions, including the shutdown of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, and there is growing support on both sides for sanctions against China for its human rights abuses as well. But with the European economy struggling to recover from the COVID-19 downturn, and the EU’s relatively greater dependence on Chinese and Russian markets, Brussels and Washington may find it difficult to work together.

Despite all of that, the more eroding development of transatlantic relations in the coming year may prove to be the deterioration of American democracy itself and what that says about the United States’ credibility as an ally.

The Stockholm-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance has judged the United States as a “regressive democracy,” and according to a Pew Research Center survey, only 18 percent of the public in nine European countries believe American democracy is a good example for other countries to follow.

“They no longer talk in Europe about the sick man in Europe,” said a New York-based foreign policy expert, “It is America that is the sick man.”

A despised Social Democrat member of the European Parliament concluded that “America continues to behave as if it were the leader.” But the prerequisites for transatlantic leadership have changed radically. America is not as sovereign as it used to be. America needs its allies as much as allies need the United States.”

The upcoming 2022 US congressional elections and lackluster opinion poll numbers for Biden are worrying Europeans. “There is a state of panic [over] What will happen in the United States? Europeans hear that Republicans could win the House and Senate in 2022, and the White House in 2024.”

An American expert at a British think-tank noted that “the Biden administration is operating in a very narrow window of opportunity.” “We may only have 10 to 11 months, because after the midterms, things may be different,” the Social Democrat member of the European Parliament added with concern.

Then the real question would be, as a former high-ranking EU official noted, “Will Biden have any political capital to spend on things important to Europe?”

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