President Biden: Russia will attack Ukraine

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President Joe Biden said he believed Russia would launch an attack on Ukraine.

Speaking at a press conference marking his one year in office, the US president noted that there is an imperative about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions.

“I think he’s going to move in, and he has to do something,” Joe Biden said.

Photo: A convoy of Russian armored vehicles moving along a highway in Crimea. Pic: AP

“Do I think he will test the West and the United States and NATO? Yes. As much as he can? Yes, I think he will,” he said.

“But I think he will pay a very serious and dear price for that which he does not think it will cost him now. And I think he will regret doing it.”

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3:23 On the frontline of the Ukraine-Russia crisis

Smaller incursion may not result in widespread sanctions

These comments are his first since the marathon round of diplomacy with Russia faltered last week.

And after insisting on whether sanctions would deter Russia from an invasion, the president offered a distinction between invasion and incursion, seeming to conclude that any smaller incursion would not result in wide-ranging sanctions.

“Russia will take responsibility if they invade it. It depends on what they do. It’s one thing if it’s a simple incursion and we end up having a fight about what to do and what not to do and so on, but if they do what they’re already doing and are able to do it with the troops Massing on the border would be a disaster for Russia.”

Photo: Snipers take part in military exercises in the firing range of the Ukrainian armed forces in Donetsk region

He was offered the opportunity to clarify whether he was suggesting that the incursion would lead to a less Western response.

“So the question is whether it’s much less of a major invasion, or not important, just the emergence of large military forces. For example, it’s something to determine if they continue to use cyber efforts, we can respond that way, with the Internet “.

Presidents’ comments shake Kiev and provide an opportunity for Moscow

Sometimes ambiguity is a tool of diplomacy. But clear language is often vital.

At the White House, the president made vague statements that alarmed Kiev and likely gave Moscow an opportunity.

President Biden concluded that the Russian incursion might not provoke the same response to the invasion. He failed to clearly define his definition of incursion.

It was left to a White House spokesperson to explain that he was making a distinction between “military” and “paramilitary.”

Remember, when Russia invaded and then annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in 2014, it did so with Russian troops who wore no insignia – the so-called “little green men”. paramilitary?

On Friday, I sat down with Victoria Nuland, the US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs and former US ambassador to NATO, and asked her if there was discrimination.

“Further regional aggression against Ukraine, additional efforts that would destabilize the democratically elected government, and any of these subversive plots that Russia has presented to Ukraine are aggressive, destabilizing and will result in resolute and swift action on our part. We have said that the response will be It will have dire economic and political consequences.”

From what President Biden has said, it is clear that NATO remains divided over its Ukrainian response.

Nothing short of a full-scale invasion, as Joe Biden admitted, “…causing a fight over what to do and what not to do.”

So, if President Putin decides to annex another small part of Ukraine, perhaps using the “little green men”, does he just think he will get away with it?

“The measures will be met with a reciprocal response.”

White House staff later clarified his comments, saying the president was making a distinction between military and non-military or paramilitary.

Emily Horne, a spokeswoman for the White House National Security Council, tweeted: “He was referring to the difference between military and non-military/paramilitary/cyber action by the Russians. Such actions would be met with a tit-for-tat, in coordination with allies and partners.”

Biden issues a warning

Photo: A Russian tank fires as troops participate in an exercise in the Rostov region, near Ukraine. Pic: AP

President Biden concluded his Ukraine remarks at the press conference with a warning.

“We need to be very careful about how we go forward and make it clear to him that there are prices to be paid that could actually cost his country a lot,” the president said.

He added in stern language: “Of course you should worry when a nuclear power invades, if he does, it hasn’t happened since World War II.

“This will be the most important thing that has happened in the world in terms of war and peace since World War II.”

Equally stark, in a comment that might get lost in one of the longest press conferences in the history of the presidency, Biden wondered if anyone even inside the Kremlin had any idea of ​​Putin’s plan.

“There is a question about whether people [we] they talk to [Russian diplomats] know what it is [Putin] Will do “.

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