The recession is still a threat ahead but there is reason for some business news optimism

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The good news has been in such a rare offering in economics lately that it’s worth focusing on when it arrives.

This morning, on Friday the 13th of all days, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced that the economy grew by 0.1% in November.

That’s not particularly strong GDP growth, but it’s much better than what economists expected: a contraction of 0.2%.

They are important because of what they contain.

Unless the economy contracts by 0.4% in December, the UK could avoid falling into a technical recession.

This is not normal. We are facing one of the largest price shocks in recent history.

The majority of economists, including the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility, assumed that the economy would contract in the last quarter of the year, and since a recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, it means that we have officially experienced a recession. Surrender to the R word.

It is now entirely plausible that Britain could avoid this fate – for the time being, at least.

This last clause is important because whether or not the UK has fallen into this rather arbitrary economic phenomenon, its economy is still barely growing.

Read more BoE intervention in bond market brings £3.8bn profit What strong Christmas retail sales tell us about the economy

Families are still under pressure and the pressure is set to continue for some time to come. Much of the additional growth in November came from pub and hospitality spending during the World Cup.

However, together with other positive news – that wholesale gas prices are falling and profits at many of the leading consumer-facing companies are holding up – this economic data could be the beginning of a more positive story for the UK economy.

The question now is how long this positivity will last.

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