Tactical voting in by-election spells bad news for the Conservatives | by-elections

[ad_1]

Looking for positives in the aftermath of Thursday’s three-way by-election, Tory chair Greg Hands suggested Labor had lost its deposits in Somerton and Frome. Immediately after speaking, pollster Sir John Curtis had a different view: this was in fact bad news for the Conservatives.

Beneath the results headline — the Conservatives were scraping huge Labor majorities in Selby and Inestey, the Liberal Democrats in Somerton and Frome, while clinging to Boris Johnson’s former headquarters in Uxbridge and South Ruislip — there was a wealth of detail.

One notable factor was the manner in which the Greens finished third – albeit a distant third – in all three seats, despite great competition in fields which ranged from eight candidates at Selby to 17 at Uxbridge.

Green Party leader Adrian Ramsey noted that his party was the only one to increase its share of the vote in all three by-elections, despite the way it was pressured each time.

Some of this was local. In Somerton and Frome the party had, in Martin Demery, a popular and well-known local candidate, who in his home town, Frome, had a number of green posters visible amidst the ubiquitous orange Lib Diem.

Ramsay also criticized Labor for failing to “show clear and unequivocal leadership” on policies, particularly the environment, saying this had held it back in Uxbridge, where the expansion of the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone was an important factor.

UK by-election: Tories lose two out of three seats – video report

With Keir Starmer’s party closing in on the Conservatives on several issues recently, notably the decision to maintain the controversial two-child benefit limit if it seizes power, the Greens are hoping they can push themselves as a clearer alternative from the left.

However, even Demery, whose best performance so far among the Greens, won just 10% of the vote, with many of his supporters telling Lib Dem representatives they are changing their choice to help beat out the conservatives.

As Curtis noted, the results show once again how much better British voters are getting at tactical decision-making, although this is generally seen as being easier to do in by-elections, without the broader political hype of a general election.

And so, in Somerton and Frome, Labor barely campaigned and won 2.6% of the vote, losing their £500 deposit – that only returned to candidates who hit 5% – but helping the LDP give the Tories another bloody nose.

Similarly, Selby’s Liberal Democrats finished sixth, behind the Yorkshire Party and the British Reform Party, with many of their regular votes going to Labor instead. In Uxbridge, the Liberal Democrats got just 526 votes.

Small numbers can make a big difference, as Oxbridge has shown. With some Green voters seeming less keen to lend their support to Labour, in the West London seat the Greens candidate ended up with 893 votes – not a huge amount, but larger than the Conservatives’ margin of victory of 495 votes.

[ad_2]