Covid-19 vaccines have saved nearly 280,000 lives in the United States, new research estimates

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The researchers compared actual trends in Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths against a model trajectory of what those trends would have been if there had been no vaccines.

By the end of June, researchers estimated that there could have been about 279,000 additional deaths from Covid-19 – about 46% more than there would have been – and up to 1.25 million additional hospitalizations if there were no vaccines. And if vaccinations had advanced half as fast as they had, about 121,000 people might have died and more than 450,000 others would have been hospitalized.

In a briefing Thursday, the White House’s director of Covid-19 response, Jeff Zentes, called this new research “a powerful reminder of what is at stake in our vaccination efforts.”

“This is further evidence that our comprehensive government strategy is working successfully and has prevented further tragedy and disruption in the lives and lives of Americans,” he said.

The researchers’ model took into account factors including prevalence and transmission of new variants, vaccine efficacy rates, mobility patterns that drive daily contacts and age-specific risks for severe health outcomes due to Covid-19.

According to the researchers, most of the additional deaths could have been caused by the “increase and spread of the more transmissible alpha variant.” The Alpha variant – also known as B.1.1.7 and first identified in the UK – has become the dominant strain in the US in spring. Without vaccinations, the researchers estimate there would have been a spring spike with nearly 4,500 deaths each day, even more than the January peak of about 3,400 daily deaths.

The researchers compared their model to actual trends between mid-December 2020 – when vaccinations began in the US – and the end of June 2021. However, the model was simulated using data going back to October 2020 to balance lower infection rates with those from the winter wave.

Nearly 48% of the US population — about 156 million people — has been fully vaccinated, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Over the past week, about 432,000 people have been fully vaccinated each day, down about 76% from the peak pace of 1.8 million people each day in mid-April.

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