Why Marvel’s ‘Black Widow’ is a major moment for Disney+ and cinemas

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Black Widow, the newest from Disney’s Marvel Studios, opened Thursday night and is set to become the biggest opening since 2019.

The movie, which stars Scarlett Johansson as the vengeful super-spy, is expected to fetch around $80 million domestically this weekend. It could score more since it’s Marvel – the biggest blockbuster brand in all of Hollywood – but it’s hard to predict because theaters are barely back in full force. Disney puts its North American forecast at around $70 million or more.

So far, the film, which has opened in more than 4,000 theaters after being delayed three times, is off to a good start. It opened to $13.2 million Thursday night.

This is welcome news for the theater industry that is desperately trying to recover from a pandemic that has put the future of cinema in great doubt. Theaters couldn’t ask for a better franchise from Marvel to continue the momentum started by the strong performances of “A Quiet Place Part II” in May and “F9: The Fast Saga” in June.

“The return of the Marvel Cinematic Universe to cinemas has long been one of the key dates set on the calendar,” Sean Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice.com, told CNN Business. “The sheer level of goodwill from fans and casual viewers alike, especially after the release of a trio of hit series on Disney+, only adds to the excitement of getting back on stage and sharing the Marvel experience once again.”

The release strategy is “not like what we’re used to,” Robbins added, and there are giant asterisks at this weekend’s opening, but it’s “a huge step forward than we were a year ago, or even six months ago.”

Black Widow at home or in theaters

This weekend isn’t just for theaters. It’s a big moment for Disney+ and the entire streaming industry. That’s because “Black Widow” will appear simultaneously in theaters and on the company’s streaming service Friday as part of Disney’s Premier Access functionality, so it’s available to Disney+ subscribers for an additional cost of $29.99. While Disney (DIS) has also released big blockbusters like ‘Mulan’ and ‘Cruella’ via Premier Access, ‘Black Widow’ is undoubtedly the most popular movie to go live to date. Marvel movies have made more than $22 billion worldwide since 2008, according to Comscore (SCOR). For many fans, Marvel movies are a lot like events to some and religious experiences to others, so having a Marvel movie, especially one starring such a popular character, on Disney+ is no small feat.

Also, providing a “black widow” at home is an excellent way to attract potential subscribers to the service. And its streaming release is a clear example of how things have changed in Hollywood lately. Only a couple of years ago, it was not known that a Marvel movie would be released in homes and in cinemas simultaneously.

Also, aside from the box office numbers, which we’ll know by Sunday, and their results on Disney+, which we may never know, this weekend also brings up an interesting hypothesis: What if the same-day release strategy for “Black Widow” becomes the norm as it heads Hollywood into a streaming future? In fact, this is already happening, as other studios are experimenting with potentially releasing blockbuster movies in homes and theaters at the same time.

“All anyone can do is speculate and commercial guess about the impact of live broadcasts on opening weekend, as studios have failed to be transparent with any meaningful streaming data,” Robbins said. “Either way, there are significant concerns about the entire production and content ecosystem if this release strategy becomes the way forward.”

Financially, “this could reduce additional revenue, which could reduce the value of many of Hollywood’s most important assets and brands,” he added.

And the effect may go beyond money.

“I think this affects the culture of re-watching movies”

If streaming blockbuster movies becomes a new norm, it could change the way we watch these movies, according to Susan Scott, associate professor at the University of Texas’ Moody School of Communication.

“For many, watching these kinds of movies in a theater is a sacred experience that I don’t think they would give up just because the movie is also being broadcast,” Scott told CNN Business. “If anything, I think this is affecting the culture of re-watching movies.”

She added that the simultaneous release model “allows for new ways to engage film in a way that a single theatrical release cannot.”

“I can imagine many fans will see ‘Black Widow’ in the theater and then immediately go home to watch the scenes again, stopping to check out the Easter eggs,” she said. “Because a lot of MCU culture includes this kind of rigorous analysis, broadcasting is in some ways a better fit.”

However, she doubts broadcasting “will become the preferred first-view mode for members of the public who treat these films as juvenile”.

In the end, strategies for how movies are released are changing day by day, and studios are still trying to figure out the whole thing. The best course of action might be a hybrid model that includes a theatrical release with a streaming debut a few weeks later.

Despite the film’s importance to the ever-growing world of broadcasting, “Black Window” is ultimately still more important to theaters, Matthew Ball, former CEO of Amazon Studios, told CNN Business.

“They need an unquestionable win,” Ball said. “And Marvel looks ready for revenge for 2020.”

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