SEC college football picks up, odds at week 12: Alabama holds Arkansas, Auburn passes through South Carolina

We have reached the second to last weekend of the college football regular season. In the SEC, this is often referred to as “cupcake Saturday.” Some teams visit the bakery to get some sweet treats, but there are a few matches that will please your taste much more than just dessert.

Well. 21 Arkansas will visit the SEC’s No. 2 Alabama in a week-long CBS game, Florida will visit Missouri in one of the biggest games of Gators coach Dan Mullen’s career, and Auburn will be left without quarterback Bo Nix playing for South Carolina in Columbia. .

What are the biggest stories from the SEC this weekend? Disassemble them and then perform game operations directly up and against spreading.

Auburn quarterback Bo Nix had to repair a broken ankle this week that he suffered a loss to Mississippi State, meaning TJ Finley will step into coach Bryan Harsin’s No. 1 player. Finley replaced Nix, of course, when Auburn lagged behind Georgia State in the second half and led the Tigers to a last-minute victory.

Finley, an LSU transfer, will make his first start to orange-blue on Saturday in South Carolina. Coincidentally, in Columbia, he got his first start last year at LSU. Harsin and attack coordinator Mike Bobon shouldn’t have to change much of the attack to fit Finley’s style. He’s calm in his pocket, has arm power to make hard throws across the field, and has decent precision in the deep lower field.

“There are a lot of similarities there, but for TJ, we’ve already done that.” Harsin said Monday. “You kind of know what he likes, and once again, we still have to break and do things that we believe will succeed. He has to be able to do those (things), and he’s done everything we have in our game plan.”

South Carolina has the SEC’s second-best pass defense (185.5 yards per game), so it’s a great way for Finley to have fun before next week’s Iron Bowl against Alabama.

Main course: Alabama time is running out

Crimson Tide must win one of his last two games to win a SEC West and a place in the SEC Championship. This weekend’s match against Arkansas is huge not only for the conference championship hopes, but also for one of the lingering problems of coach Nick Saban’s crew to solve – the running of football.

They average only 3.76 yards per move in conference games and managed 0.23 yards per move in their last SEC match, winning 20-14 from LSU two weeks ago. This will prevent Alabama from being a true national title challenger unless it is corrected in a hurry. If that’s not the case, Crimson Tide can’t win first place in Georgia’s Atlanta and win consecutive wins in the College Football playoffs – if it even gets there at all.

The Razorbacks are a good team to try to get to properly. They give up 4.66 yards per rush and are ranked 11th in the conference with 64 allowed to fight the defeat. It is far from the end of September, when Defense Coordinator Barry Odom was hailed as one of the best in the industry.

Alabama must have a great day on the ground on Saturday. If not, the alarm bells should ring very loud.

Dessert: Love for defenders

The Heisman Trophy is as open as ever, and two stud defenders made it to the race Caesars Sportsbook Odds at (+8000) this week: Georgian nose guard Jordan Davis and Will Anderson Jr. Sorry to get up from my seat and applaud standing. The award is given to “the most significant player in football”, not “the best offensive skill player on one of the best teams”. There is no doubt that the duo will fit the bill.

Davis, a 6-foot-by-6, 340-pound monster, controls the interior of the Bulldog’s line of defense. Even if he doesn’t actually make tackles, Davis takes up space to allow his teammates to play. Meanwhile, Anderson leads the crowd in sacks by 12.5 (1.25 per game) and has grabbed quarterbacks in critical situations from the opening game against Miami.

Will either win it? Probably not. After all, many Heisman voters fall into the trap of an offensive skill player every year. However, both stars will be in New York in mid-December as finalists for the most prestigious individual award in American sports.

Highlights

Straight up: 74-19 | Against application: 42-39

So much for the Aggies licking their wounds after getting Alabama strangled. They’ll face their second consecutive SEC opponent this week as they travel to Kentucky, and it’s going to be pretty similar to last week’s Tuscaloosa disaster. Kentucky is using its multidimensional passing attack, preparing quarterback Will Levis for next weekend’s race with Louisville and hanging on half a hundred unfortunate Aggies. Selection: Kentucky (-36)

Well. 21 Arkansas at No. 2 Alabama

Latest odds:

Alabama Crimson Tide -20.5

This isn’t as nerve-wracking for Alabama fans as the LSU game two weeks ago, but it’s also not quite nice. The Arkansas attack is very unique thanks to 6-foot-3, 240-pound quarterback KJ Jefferson. Simply put, there aren’t many ways to simulate the kind of multidimensional transmission attack that Arkansas uses every weekend. This attack has enough success to stay in the league against an Alabama team that continues to struggle to run the football. Selection: Arkansas (+20.5)

In Florida, Missouri

Latest odds:

Missouri Tigers +8.5

Florida is an 8.5-point favorite this weekend, which feels like 14 points too. Samford lit the Gators ’defense last week, and Missouri runner Tyler Badie plans to flirt with 200 running yards this weekend. Yes, the Florida crime shone last week under the leadership of Emory Jones, suggesting that this will be a penalty kick. Standing at home, Missouri won’t have to hit it on the ground and play to stay away in the final quarter of the spring shock. Selection: Missouri (+8.5)

Auburn in South Carolina

Latest odds:

South Carolina Gamecocks +7.5

Auburn will give quarterback TJ Finley his first start of the season and will be the country’s second best pass defense. In theory, it should give bettors a break if they plan to take the Tigers and set a score. Don’t worry about it. Auburn runners Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter return to the start of the season, hitting the SEC’s 11th-ranked Rush defense (168.9 yards per game) and out of Columbia with a double-digit win. Selection: Auburn (-7)

Ole Miss is on the bee line towards New Year’s Six Bowl and makes a big statement on Saturday night in Oxford. The rebel attack has been gone all year, but the defense looked awesome last weekend against Texas A&M and was only lit up by the Christmas tree after it was at the top of Arkansas in early October. We look at Matt Corral and Co.’s 50 burgers, and Commodores don’t even get double-digit numbers. Selection: Ole Miss (-36.5)

Latest odds:

Tennessee Volunteers -28

Tennessee scored more points against Georgia than any other team this season, but the Jaguars are not a disaster in that division. They rank second in the solar zone in total defense (320.4 yards per game), in yards per game (4.98), and in the red zone touch percentage (50%). I love the Volunteers attack and what coach Josh Heupel is leading, but the odds give Jaguars too many points: Selection: South Alabama (+27.5)

Latest odds:

LSU Tigers -29

The Warhawks have the worst attack and the second worst defense in the Sun Belt, and at this point it is clear that Garrett Nussmeier and Max Johnson are currently in a test run from the top of the depth chart for staff still to be hired. That means coach Ed Orgeron won’t take his foot off the gas for the entire four quarters and will earn offensive momentum in next week’s race against Texas A&M. Selection: LSU (-29)

Other games vs. FCS teams

• Well. 1 Georgia over Charleston Southern (no line available)
• Well. 16 Texas A&M Prairie View Above A&M (line not available)
• Well. 25 Mississippi State over the state of Tennessee (no line available)

What college football choices can you make with confidence in Week 12, and which College Football playoff challenger will fall hard? Visit the SportsLine website to see which teams will win and cover the spread – all from a proven computer model that has generated nearly $ 3,500 in profits over the past five seasons – and find out.