College football Picks against the spread: Stewart Mandels Week 1 Picks

Welcome to another year of Picks Against the Spread, a Weekly tradition where I try to make money for any of you dumb enough to take gambling advice from a sportswriter. And hey, if a state of California ballot initiative passes in November, Ill finally be able to join in with you guys in time for Week 10.

Note: You can pick against myself and Bruce Feldman and win prizes, legally, by Entering The Audibles Run Your Pool pick em contest.

(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)

West Virginia at Pitt (-7.5), Thursday, 7 p.m., ESPN

Its great to have the Backyard Brawl back. Its also amusing that the first edition in the transfer Portal era features two former USC starting quarterbacks, Kedon Slovis (Pitt) and JT Daniels (West Virginia). Its hard to pick against the reigning ACC champs, but a down-to-the-wire game feels befitting of the occasion.

Pitt 34, West Virginia 30
Pick: West Virginia +7.5

Penn State (-3.5) at Purdue, Thursday, 8 p.m., Fox

How am I supposed to resist a home underdog coming off a better season than the visitor? Perhaps Purdue takes a step back from 9-4, but QB Aidan O’Connell should be able to outplay Penn State counterpart Sean Clifford. The question I which team will be able to run the ball more effectively.

Purdue 24, Penn State 21
Pick: Purdue +3.5

NC State (-11.5) at East Carolina, Saturday, Noon, ESPN

Im a Wolfpack believer, which feels dangerous to say given the program hasn’t won an ACC title since 1979. Ive got them reaching a New Years Six bowl. If QB Devin Leary and that loaded defense perform as expected, they should cruise in this one. But East Carolina is decent enough to sneak up on someone.

NC State 28, East Carolina 16
Pick: NC State -11.5

North Carolina (-1) at Appalachian State, Saturday, Noon, ESPNU

Mountaineers QB Chase Brice lost 56-24 to the Tar Heels in 2020, but that was when he played for Duke. Last season he led Appalachian State to a 10-win season, and he is in a good spot here facing a UNC team that has gone 5-11 in road games under Mack Brown and is trotting out first-year starting QB Drake Maye.

Appalachian State 42, North Carolina 38
Pick: Appalachian State +1

Cincinnati at Arkansas (-6.5), Saturday, 3:30 pm, ESPN

I hate to go right back to doubting Cincinnati so soon after its Playoff run, but man. No Desmond Ridder, no Sauce Gardner, no Myjai Sanders and six other 2022 draft picks. Whereas Arkansas still has standout QB KJ Jefferson, not to mention renowned defensive coordinator Barry Odom. Hard to pick the Bearcats in Fayetteville.

Arkansas 31, Cincinnati 20
Pick: Arkansas -6.5

Oregon vs. Georgia (-17.5), Saturday, 3:30 pm, ABC

Its Bo Nix vs. Georgia Part 4, only this time hell be wearing green and white (or neon, or black, or ) instead of blue and orange. Theres a whole lot of unknowns for both teams, but Mario Cristobal stocked Oregon with a lot of big-time athletes in the trenches who will be tough for Georgia to run off the field.

Georgia 34, Oregon 26
Pick: Oregon +17

Utah (-3) at Florida, Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN

First of all, kudos to Florida for finally scheduling a home-and-home with a school outside its state. The Gators will allegedly travel to Salt Lake next season. Billy Napier may have Floridas roster refitted entirely to his liking by then, but a Kyle Whittingham team with a Veteran QB (Cam Rising) is not an ideal Year 1 opener.

Utah 26, Florida 17
Pick: Utah -2.5

Notre Dame at Ohio State (-17), Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC

The Buckeyes offense should be Unstoppable in 80 percent of their games, but I dont see CJ Stroud and Co. running roughshod over Marcus Freemans defense, which allowed 19.7 points in 2021. As is often the case in big games, though, Notre Dame won’t be able to make enough explosive plays of its own.

Ohio State 30, Notre Dame 20
Pick: Notre Dame +17

Boise State at Oregon State (-2.5), Saturday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN

Oregon State is quickly becoming America’s Team to the part of America that stays up late watching football. Jonathan Smiths offenses are always entertaining. Boise State Coach Andy Avalos Veteran defense could cause problems for the Beavers, but not enough to win at fabled Reser Stadium.

Oregon State 24, Boise State 20
Pick: Oregon State -3

Florida State vs. LSU (-3), Sunday, 7:30 p.m., ABC

The only thing I learned from FSUs Week 0 Rout of Duquesne was that Duquesne has a football team. But Ive felt all offseason that Mike Norvells offense would take a big step forward this season. Hes got some weapons, and finally a functional O-line. FSU can handle Brian Kelly’s LSU team in transition.

Florida State 34, LSU 30
Pick: Florida State +4

Mandel’s upset special: Arizona at San Diego State (-6.5), Saturday, 3:30 pm (CBS)

San Diego State has been in the news for the wrong reasons lately. This is its moment to show off the brand new Snapdragon Stadium on CBS. But Arizona Coach Jedd Fisch has upgraded the Wildcats offense with transfer QB Jayden de Laura and WRs Jacob Cowing and Tetairoa McMillan. They can pull off the stunner.

Arizona 30, San Diego State 27
Pick: Arizona +6.5

(Top photo: Rob Kinnan / USA Today)