How football teams fared after leaving after joining the Big 12

With Texas and Oklahoma set to leave the Big 12 in 2025 and BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF joining the conference next year, it makes sense to wonder whether being in the mix will help or hurt the football team’s national profile.

Sure, teams switch conferences more for money than rankings, but rankings carry prestige…and money usually follows. Schools that jump into new leagues typically seek a higher ranking and more prestige, especially in their football athletic program.

But does more money help?

An analysis of the AP’s Top 25 ranking over the last 34 years shows that it is not necessarily true that more money equals better performance. Sometimes it’s a relative wash and other times conference hopping has seemed to hurt outgoing teams and significantly help newcomers. The information below reveals the details.

The following table shows, for each team that is or was in the Big 12 (or Big 8 prior to 1996), the percentage of time each team spent in the AP Top 25 and its average ranking (when ranked ).

The parts are colored as follows:

Blue: teams ranked in the top 25 over 60% of the time.

Green: teams ranked in the top 25 30-60% of the time.

Yellow: teams ranked in the top 25 10-30% of the time.

Red: teams ranked in the top 25 less than 10% of the time.

The data shows several cases that have had a large impact on joining or leaving the conference… and also some cases with little or no impact.

After joining the Big 12, Baylor and Texas each made significant improvements in ranking performance, with Baylor going from essentially unpunished to ranking 22% of the time (11th on average). Texas’ field goal percentage went from 38 percent to 67 percent, and the Longhorns’ ranking average jumped from 17th to 12th.

TCU had a drop-off fielding percentage, but improved its fielding average to 15th. instead of sixth. Texas Techs ranking performance was mostly a wash; only West Virginia and Texas A&M saw a decline in performance after joining the Big 12.

Among outgoing schools, both Texas A&M and Missouri have been top-ranked, with placement percentages remaining relatively flat and average placements only slightly improving.

Big movers? Colorado and Nebraska. Leaving the Big 12, Colorado was ranked 44% of the time with an average of 10th, just 8% of the time, and an average ranking of 17th.

The change in Nebraskas ranking performance is even more dramatic, dropping from 79% (an average ranking of 12th in the Big 12) to now just 9% at an average ranking of 25th.That’s one ranking, at 25th, in the last 11 years.

It’s fair to say that while other factors certainly played a part, leaving the Big 12 hasn’t helped either of these teams.

Of the six teams that participated in the conference, two did better after arrival, two did worse and two remained relatively unchanged. Of the four teams that left the Big 12, two remained the same and two fared significantly worse.

So what will happen to BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida when they join the Big 12 in 2023, and how will Texas and Oklahoma fare after they leave in 2025?

Only time will tell if past is prologue.

Craig Price is an engineer who graduated Summa Cum Laude from Kansas State, then an MS from Purdue and a PhD from Stanford University.