What to expect in the January 2023 Premier League transfer window

Christmas comes late for Premier League clubs looking to strengthen their squads in the January transfer window. A lot of spending is expected this year, but the winter World Cup makes the January window a little different than most years.

The general trend has been an increase in spending in January. But there are many exceptions. January’s biggest spending spree came in 2018, when Liverpool snapped up Virgil Van Djik, Arsenal brought in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Manchester City added Aymeric Laporte. The pandemic and resulting empty stadiums meant spending in 2021 was the lowest in nine years, but last year January spending rebounded second highest level ever.

Last January’s spending may have been partly due to the recovery from the pandemic, and Newcastle United were also strongly affected. The clubs new owners were prepared to pay big to secure Newcastle’s Premier League status, bringing in Bruno Guimaraes and Kieran Trippier as well as poaching striker Chris Wood from relegation rivals Burnley.

Newcastle’s situation this winter couldn’t be more different. Eddie Howe has taken them from relegation battle to Champions League contention. This was largely due to the investment in their defence, which is now among the strongest in the Premier League.

Newcastle are not in dire need of reinforcements like they were last winter and still need to keep an eye on financial fair play rules, but as they compete for a place in Europe, they should be able to attract higher quality players. Fewer signings are expected from Newcastle, but what they do may well come with a price tag that reflects their new mode as an elite club.

The 2022 World Cup in Qatar brings an additional twist to this winter’s transfer window. The head coaches have had the whole of December to think about what kind of players they need and talked to the club’s scouts and senior management. This could mean that clubs are a bit more focused and that more deals are made early.

Aston Villa, Southampton and Wolverhampton Wanderers all brought in new head coaches in November. Southampton brought in Nathan Jones from Luton Town, while Villa and Wolves brought in Spanish greats Unai Emery and Julen Lopetegui respectively. They would have had plenty of time to assess their squad and draw up a target list before January.

Wolves have been desperately short of strikers all season due to Raul Jimenez’s injury problems, but have already looked to address that by signing the Brazil international. Matheus Cunha on loan from Atletico Madrid with an obligation to buy for 50 million dollars in the summer.

On the other hand, there is no winter holiday in January. Last season, the Premier League took a short winter break at the end of January, which would have helped the winter contracts to adapt to their new environment. Everyone who joined this winter needs to get up to speed as almost every Wednesday slot is full so clubs can make up for the matches lost in the World Cup schedule.

This year’s relegation battle is one of the tightest ever, with no team drifting by Christmas, and just seven points clear of the bottom ten. This means clubs in the bottom half can spend big in January as they try to secure their Premier League status. Nottingham Forest spent more last summer than in their entire previous history, but head coach Steve Cooper has already said that new signings are needed, with one-team Brazilian Gustavo Scarpa already joining the club from Palmeiras.

At the top of the league, the emergence of Arsenal and Newcastle this season could force the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United to get their checkbooks out to improve their chances of qualifying for next season’s Champions League. Chelsea have a new head coach, Graham Potter, who may also want a certain style of players, and Liverpool have already signed Dutch ace Cody Gakpo from PSV Eindhoven for around $40-50 million.

This suggests that spending in January of the current year will be at least at the same level as last winter, but the transfers may come a little earlier than in previous years. However, given the difficulties in getting contracts over the line and because some contracts are based on clubs selling or buying other players first, there are still daily contracts on the deadline, even though clubs have all of December to make their transfer plans.