A new version of college football is coming – here’s what needs to happen

The change took place in shocks and starts last time. First, Colorado decided to jump to the (then) Pac-10 from the Big 12. Then, a day later in 2010, Nebraska committed to the Big Ten starting in 2011. Utah accepted an invitation to the Pac-10 less than a week later. . In 2011, Texas A&M and Missouri decided to jump to the SEC, and less than a year later, they were there. In the intervening months, the conferences decided to scrap the BCS and create the playoffs. Then West Virginia and TCU filled out the Big 12. In 2013, Syracuse and Pittsburgh joined the ACC. Finally, in 2014 — just as Louisville made the jump to the ACC — the College Football Playoff began.

It was a lot, but it felt scattered. It felt like the change would never end.

Now that Oklahoma, Texas and the Big 12 have proven that rational people can draw rational conclusions, the next huge changes will come mostly all at once. Oklahoma and Texas will begin SEC play – and the SEC will adopt a new scheduling format – in 2024. UCLA and USC will begin Big Ten play – and Big Ten games will adopt a new scheduling format – in 2024. The Big 12 will begin play. with a lineup it hopes will be together for a long time in 2024.

𝗢𝗞𝗟𝗔𝗛𝗢𝗠𝗔 𝘅 𝦦𝗘𝗖
𝗦𝗨𝗠𝗠𝗘𝗥 2002𝟰#BoomerSooner pic.twitter.com/vTCLL0VJjC

– Oklahoma Sooners (@OU_Athletics) February 10, 2023

The biggest change? The 2024 season will end with a 12-team College Football Playoff instead of four. This change has informed a few others, and will likely affect some more to come (which will probably also come into force in 2024).

Less than 19 months later, college football feels like a whole new sport. This upsets some people and excites others. But it’s important to note that the sport has evolved fairly continuously since defenders of the status quo protested the legalization of the forward throw in 1906.

What happens now? There are still some loose ends to be tied up in the next 18+ months, and some will need to be untied pretty quickly.

Note that I didn’t mention a new or established lineup with the Pac-12 starting in 2024. That still seems like the most likely outcome, but the league would have to agree to a new media rights deal that would begin with the 2024 football season . The deadline is not quite close yet; Keep in mind that the details of the Big Ten deal, which starts in July, weren’t finalized until August 2022. But the Big 12 has already jumped in line and agreed to a new deal starting in 2025 with ESPN and Fox. The Big 12 also hasn’t been shy about its desire to welcome current Pac-12 members if they choose something else.

Since UCLA and USC announced their departures last year, none of the Pac-12’s current members have publicly expressed a desire to go elsewhere. Privately, some of them would certainly like to follow UCLA and USC to the Big Ten. But with former Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren in charge of the Chicago Bears, the biggest proponent of westward expansion is gone. Now the remaining members of the Pac-12 must hope that commissioner George Kliavkoff can negotiate a deal that puts them in the same financial territory as the Big 12 and ACC schools. The Big Ten and SEC are out of reach.

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What we’re hearing about Pac-12 expansion, SMU, the Big 12 and more

Kliavkoff initially seems to overestimate how much broadcasters are willing to pay. First-year Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark came up with a more realistic number, and his league secured his contract. That made it easier to welcome BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF this year, and it made it easier to work out a deal with Oklahoma and Texas that saw the schools leave behind a combined $100 million they would have received from the league. The money is divided among the remaining members.

Kliavkof now has to make a deal that will almost certainly have a streaming component. The question is how big? Will the linear network also be included? ESPN still needs games to air on Saturdays in the 10:30 PM ET/7:30 PM PT window — and likely some Friday games in a similar time slot. But ESPN would also like a handful of premium games to air in its 3:30 PM ET and 8 PM ET windows. Losing these premium games to ESPN could reduce the amount streamers like Amazon Prime Video or Apple TV might be willing to pay.

Kliavkoff’s visit to SMU on Wednesday certainly seemed like a familiarization session for the potential future member. SMU and San Diego State appear to be the top candidates should the Pac-12 decide to expand. And if the league is going to do business with one or more Streamers, adding schools makes sense. Streamers want both quantity and quality. While linear networks like ESPN and Fox are limited by time slots and channels, streaming devices are not. They want to give people as many reasons as possible to join.

If the Big 12 wants to push the Four Corners schools in the Pac-12 (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah), it could suggest that a move to that league would allow ESPN to fill the needed time slot, and the revenue from additional inventory would likely be enough to give them schools more than they can earn from the Pac-12 contract. And if those schools fall apart, Oregon and Washington would probably have to find a new home, too.

But again, none of these schools seem to want to leave. Plus, the ability to win the new Pac-12 — and most likely make the 12-team CFP — on a regular basis seems like a good reason to stick with multiple schools. So unless there’s significantly more money, staying in the Pac-12 seems like the most likely outcome.

In the meantime, the Big Ten and SEC must finalize new scheduling models. (The ACC, which has no membership changes, will unveil its new scheduling model this season. Teams will continue to play eight conference games, but divisions will be eliminated. Instead, teams will have three fixed annual opponents and the other 10 members will rotate twice every four years.) The Big Ten already plays nine conference games. The SEC is seriously considering adding a ninth.

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Expanded SEC and Expanded Playoff: Greg Sankey played this one perfectly

The most common way to schedule a 16-team league with nine games is to take three fixed opponents and then rotate the remaining 12 teams through the remaining six slots twice every four years. The SEC still hasn’t ruled out the possibility of going eight conference games and having just one solid opponent per team, but it needs to put that notion out to pasture quickly. Pushing to stay in the eight are perennial also-rans who want an extra non-conference berth to schedule bowl eligibility.

Let’s put this as plainly as possible: If you have Texas and Texas A&M in your league and they don’t play football every year, you’re an idiot. If you hijack the league’s schedule for nearly 20 years to make sure Alabama and Tennessee play every season, and then stop playing that series every year just when it’s getting fun again, you’re stupid. If you stop playing the Deep South’s oldest rivalry (Auburn-Georgia) every year so Mississippi State can schedule another easy win, you’re a fool.

So now that we’ve decided why the SEC should go to nine conference games, it’s time to argue about each team’s three solid opponents. (But that’s another column for another day.) Note that I never said “persistent” opponents. While some rivalries should never change, the Big Ten and SEC should reserve the right to change established opponents to freshen up matchups or cash in on random opponents that have developed budding rivalries.

Between the new members and the new formats, some of the games created by the Big Ten and SEC changes should be blockbusters.

We see Texas playing Texas A&M again. The arrival of the Longhorns also means Arkansas finally has a conference opponent it truly hates. We’re going to see USC against the likes of Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. The Big Ten teams are headed to the Rose Bowl – a regular season matchup against UCLA. Oklahoma visits Alabama and Tennessee and gets visits from LSU and Georgia. Funny old SEC matchups like Auburn vs. Florida are held twice every four years instead of twice every 12 years.

In the Big 12, we see a league where new members should be able to get up to speed quickly, and where most of the old members should often be in contention for a conference championship — and therefore in contention for a CFP berth. deep into the season.

There may be some new blood in the Pac-12. Also, who knows how much fun Deion Sanders will have coaching in the league?

In all aspects, we are enjoying the 2023 season. If it is the 2022 season, it seems to have gone by far too quickly.

But once this season is over, we’re only a few months away. The dawn of the next version of college football will be here much sooner than we think.

(Photo of Texas Longhorns mascot Bevo XV: Aaron E. Martinez / American-Statesman via USA Today Network)