Novak Djokovic: “I can’t win with this game”

Is it too early to sound the alarm? Even Novak Djokovic might wonder about it. The world number one couldn’t find the confidence he might have needed after his early loss in Monte-Carlo this week in Banja Luka. Two wins in two tournaments since his return on clay: it’s already not ideal at all. But when you add in the right elbow injury, it becomes very concerning, even more so it’s been years since that elbow worked.

“I had my chances but I didn’t take them. I played quite passively, a lot of mistakes and that led to the loss,” said a logically disappointed Novak Djokovic on Friday. And it’s not like he’s been at his best in the two games he’s won in these two weeks, so there’s no real reason for optimism there either. Not surprisingly, Djokovic is rusty on clay after a long layoff. Over the years, it’s been harder and harder for him to get through the first few weeks in red: he’s not the biggest guy, and he doesn’t have the heaviest forehand or heaviest rotation.

“Clay Nole” needs hours on these fields to perform

On clay, “Nole” needs to accumulate hours on the court and wins as best he can to build his game, his legs and his confidence in time for Roland-Garros. He’s been doing it for years and years, he knows how to get there. And sure enough, last year he reached the final of the Serbian Open after losing in the first round in Moncao before making the semifinals in Madrid and winning the title in Rome, so right now he looks behind schedule. So yes, right now his game doesn’t look up to the task, but that in itself wouldn’t be a valid reason to sound the alarm already.

No, the biggest concern comes from his fitness. There is no path for Novak Djokovic on clay if his body is not in absolute top condition. He can’t make up for it with his game speed and accuracy the way he would on hard court or grass. On clay, he has to be able to endure and be able to be relentless, so the guy on the other side burns out. And obviously, right now, his body can’t do any of this because this right elbow is working. Djokovic has by no means been able to train the way he wants to because of this injury, so he has by no means been able to keep up with his ideal clay training. He hasn’t talked much about this injury since his return, so it’s impossible to tell if it’s the same one he suffered years ago and had surgery on in 2018 after months of pain. But the memories of that difficult time can also be difficult to process, especially because he hated the fact that he needed that surgery.

I can’t go through the top players on clay without his best palm

If he doesn’t go into detail, however, Djokovic doesn’t hide that his current form won’t cut it at all if it stays that way. He won’t win Roland-Garros or anything before that if he can’t raise the bar: he needs his forehand and he needs his serve or he won’t go through anybody on that surface. Djokovic knows what it’s like to be on track to achieve his goals, and right now he’s clearly taken off that track. “I was well below my desired level,” he said after admitting of course that Lajovic also played well. “I can’t win against opponents who are so solid on this surface in this game. I didn’t feel good even physically on the court: I felt slow, slow on my feet; I missed a lot of balls and was completely off the shot. At times I played well, but clearly below my level.

So what next? Presumably Madrid and Rome before Paris. A slightly faster Madrid could help him have an easier time and therefore get more wins and build from there. But it all depends on the elbow situation. It makes sense to be slow at age 35 after weeks and weeks on Tour, and with Djokovic one of the best athletes the game has ever seen, it will be resolved in time for Roland-Garros. But can he fix his elbow in time? That’s the biggest concern right now.

What is a reasonable limit for pushing that elbow on the slowest surface?

Playing hours under his belt on clay with an elbow injury is impossible and far too risky at this point in his career. You don’t play with your joints. And Novak Djokovic with the clay palm we saw against Lajovic today? Not happening either.

Very few players know how to best prepare their bodies for the demands of the highest level of this sport, and Djokovic is one of them. So seeing him clearly worried right now is not a good sign. Only he knows if that elbow is acting up because it had to go straight back to clay after weeks off and it’s not 20 years old anymore, or if it’s something more serious. Some tough decisions may have to be made soon unless Djokovic’s team can find a way to resolve the fitness issues. Yes, they have done it many times before and as recently as the Australian Open. But this right elbow has long shown that it could be a completely different fight.

As the tour was already anxiously watching Rafael Nadal’s pelvis, we can now split our time watching Novak Djokovic’s shadow. That’s certainly what’s happening at Roland-Garros right now: imagine not getting that showdown between Djokovic, Nadal and Alcaraz… A perfect movie ruined by a terrible twist.