90% of everything is. . . Guess

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In the past 90% of the time you only accessed things on your computer’s local network. Then, in 1993, at the University of Illinois, Marc Andreessen developed Mosaic, the first Internet browser, which allowed users to roam the World Wide Web 90% of the time. He moved to Silicon Valley and founded Netscape. Mr. Andreessen is now general partner of a world-class venture capital firm, better than 90% of his peers. Andreessen Horowitz recently raised $ 9 billion in new funds.

Last week I spent some time sitting on Mr. Andreessen’s back porch reflecting on 90% magic and how he created Silicon Valley and continues to rule it. “In venture capital, you think a lot about so-called adverse selection,” says Andreessen. “‘Why am I lucky enough to be the person you’re trying to raise money from?’ You want to get a positive selection, the best people who come to you.

But how? Mr. Andreessen begins with the replication crisis in scientific studies, especially psychology: more than half of the studies cannot be replicated. I suggest that “studies show” are the two most dangerous words in the English language. Mr. Andreessen quickly adds: “The corollary is ‘experts say’. “

Mr. Andreessen’s friend in the world of scientific research told him about a historical study of heart and lung medications that have been approved but have not been effective. Mr. Andreessen learned that “one of the things you do to counter a replication crisis is a ‘pre-registration of the hypothesis’, instead of pretending after you have a hypothesis, that you are collecting data to prove”. The result of this pre-registration? There were fewer new drugs approved because researchers could no longer falsify the data. “Of course, what this implies is that most of the drugs that are already on the market today probably don’t work.” His friend agreed and said he forgets 50%, it’s 90% of the research that’s not good to start with.

Then Mr. Andreessen says, “I heard about it, aha, sturgeon law!” Theodore Sturgeon (1918-85) was a science fiction author annoyed that people said all science fiction was bad and wanted to defend the 10% that was good, saying, “90% of everything is crap.” Mr. Andreessen says “90% of the music is crap”. The same goes for “paintings, writings, TV shows and films”. I would add ideas, actions, opinions, politicians: the list goes on.

This is “the nature of creative work. There are only a few people in any field who know what to do, ”says Andreessen. “The reason I’m so fascinated by this is the ethics of our times is egalitarianism. Everyone is the same, everyone is the same. The presumption of the times, the ethics that if you just put the work into it, you’ll get great results ”—The 10,000 nonsense hours by Malcolm Gladwell. “It’s not just effort. It’s not just accidental. Something else is happening. In these domains we have a very small number of people who know what to do. And we have far more people who typically work under a variety of delusions, generating bullshit. It is what it is. I wish there were more quality painters. . . or entrepreneurs “.

How does Silicon Valley explain this? After Franklin D. Roosevelt’s scientific advisor Vannevar Bush conceptualized modern university science – “science to scale” – metrics were put in place: number of articles, grant money, number of students per professor, citations . Universities have created an easy-to-play implicit scoring system. University research is a “self-accredited cartel with no market pressure,” Andreessen notes. Hence the replication crisis.

“Super talented” people, says Mr. Andreessen, leave academia or corporations because they realize they are “swimming in an ocean of mediocrity.” Hence the positive selection for venture capitalists. “Doesn’t it take a bold person to make the leap?” I ask. “Yes, an aggression and an intolerance. O aggressive intolerance! ” says Mr. Andreessen. “But it is not the fault of the people, it is the fault of the systems.” Academic research and large corporations like IBM “keep running the same scripts.” They need a new model. Take note, Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google.

Thus Silicon Valley has become the positive attractor of talent. “Venture capital met the top 10%,” says Andreessen. Thanks, Sturgeon. And away from the east coast, it was “the vanguard of the frontier”.

But doesn’t Sturgeon’s law also apply to investments in startups? A typical venture capital fund has a home run, a few medium-yielding companies, and lots of steaming holes in the ground. “We have a limited liability partner who has complete data,” explains Andreessen. “For high-end venture funds, the good news is that it’s not a 90% failure rate, it’s a 50% failure rate. This is for a top-decile firm. So maybe the sturgeon law doesn’t apply. But wait. 90% of funds below the maximum decline do worse. Rules of the law of the sturgeon. Mr. Andreessen pauses, raises an eyebrow and nods in agreement.

Does this law apply everywhere? Or maybe 90% of all laws, including the sturgeon law, are bullshit.

Write to [email protected].

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