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But whatever the political fallout over the next few months, it won’t just be forced on Biden and the Democrats, given the bipartisan nature of opposing blocs: hawkish members of both parties who insist on hanging on, and non-interventionists. on both sides who say it’s time for the United States to end its longest foreign war.
I am a combination of hope that I am wrong, but pessimistic that I am right, that the slope is going to be down and that the Taliban will be on the rise, said James Dobbins, former ambassador to Afghanistan and special representative in Afghanistan and in Pakistan under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, which is part of a bipartisan commission set up by Congress that has recommended this year against a brutal withdrawal.
Dobbins said if the situation worsens markedly, the US military may be forced to pressure Biden for a change in strategy.
I think the military has welcomed, but that doesn’t stop them from raising issues as the situation evolves, renewing their appeals if the situation changes drastically, he said.
On Capitol Hill, Republican and Democratic hawks say they still hope to persuade the Biden administration and its U.S. allies to do more before it’s too late.
I will certainly do whatever I can to try to get our president and other international leaders to keep talking about what the Taliban are doing and to continue to support very strong women in the country, Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat and member of the Armed Services Committee, said in an interview.
She also still believes that a lasting military presence is necessary. One of the things I heard from the military leaders there was the belief that it would be important to maintain a counterterrorism force in Afghanistan, she said. The decision was made not to do so, at least in the short term.
Worsening of the situation
Under Bidens’ orders, the estimated 3,500 US troops, as well as the 7,000 NATO forces, are expected to withdraw completely by September 11. But as the withdrawal has started in recent weeks, the Taliban appear to be on the move. And some experts say the group is in an even stronger position than it was before it was overthrown from power following the US-led invasion in 2001.
Government troops launched a counteroffensive on Wednesday after Taliban forces took control of a district in neighboring Kabul province, Reuters reported, raising concerns that fighting could reach the capital.
The clash comes after reports that the Taliban also took control of two northern districts last week and are training to shoot at a number of provincial capitals as foreign troops continue to withdraw.
Some influential players are now advocating a reassessment of the exit plan, although not all are prepared to criticize Biden so openly.
We must reconsider our decision, said a former senior intelligence official who served in the region.
He cited what appears to be the Taliban’s desire to do whatever it takes to consolidate their gains. They lifted moral constraints, he said, citing the bombing of a school this weekend in Kabul, as well as the recent attacks on power plants and a hydroelectric dam.
The number of attacks reported this year has increased significantly, the former senior official added. If you put it all together, you get a pretty alarming situation.
The blame game was exposed during a hearing before the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday in which Pentagon officials insisted they were working to minimize the threat to the Afghan government and the potential to regrouping of terrorist groups.
Representative Don Bacon speaks to reporters as he walks out of a House Armed Services Committee briefing. | Drew Angerer / Getty Images
Having a rushed engagement is a mistake that will not be in the interest of our national security, said Representative Don Bacon (R-Neb.), A retired Air Force brigadier general, adding that the Taliban consider the withdrawal to be a surrender.
He warned that Afghanistan could follow Iraq’s path after US forces withdrew in 2011 and Islamic State filled the void, ultimately forcing the US to come back in force.
The cost of returning if Al Qaeda obtains safe haven under the Taliban will be much higher in blood and treasure, Bacon warned.
Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat from Michigan and former Pentagon official, also raised the specter of the rise of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, when she said the United States lacked intelligence or planning sufficient to react quickly enough.
She recalled that Washington and its allies “did not have clear trigger wires that turned red when we passed them … we weren’t able to muster the interagency energy back to them for a while.” .
In the case of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, she said in Wednesday’s hearing, there must be “very specific trigger threads that we are assessing here.”
The Pentagon plan
The Pentagon is clearly aware of the risks.
David Helvey, Acting Deputy Defense Secretary for Indo-Pacific Affairs, agreed with lawmakers that there is a risk that if we step down, or when we step back, international terrorist groups like ISIS could emerge in full force. in Afghanistan. “
But lawmakers on both sides who back the Bidens decision have expressed confidence that the US military can at least contain the situation so that terrorists cannot use Afghanistan as a base to launch global attacks.
There are other ways to monitor this threat and manage the risk, and at this point the cost and risk of a continued troop presence by both US and our allied troops outweighs the benefits. , argued Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), who chairs the House Armed Services Committee.
Navy Brig. General Matthew Trollinger, deputy director of political-military affairs for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, described a three-pronged strategy.
This includes relying on a continued diplomatic presence in the country “to be able to help manage and mitigate the terrorist threat that may emanate from Afghanistan,” he said, as well as “a regional military presence. “, or air and naval forces. and special operations troops who can launch counterterrorism missions from a distance.
“We have substantial capabilities in the Middle East, in the Gulf, and those capabilities are not diminishing,” Trollinger said. “We will always have the capacity to pursue terrorism from positions throughout the region.”
But he also acknowledged that the Pentagon is scrambling to secure new locations from which to operate. “We need to look at areas closer to Afghanistan and these are negotiations and discussions going on,” he said.
It remains uncertain whether neighboring nations will agree.
Representative Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), Member of the House of Commons Armed Services Committee, speaks in Washington, DC | Alex Brandon / AP Photo
Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican from Alabama, asked Helvey if the pullout would be completed without making such arrangements first.
“We intend to work quickly on both lines of effort,” replied Helvey. But pressed further by Turner, he acknowledged that “the two planning efforts are in parallel but they are not linked.”
Other experts say military leaders, who have advised against Biden’s withdrawal schedule, privately fear blame if things go wrong in Afghanistan and if the strategy is not enough to keep Islamic terrorist groups out. distance.
I think the top management has been trying to slow this thing down the whole time, hoping the United States will stick around, said Bill Roggio, a senior researcher at the Warmongering Foundation for the Defense of Democracies who has been following Taliban operations closely. on the battlefield. I think they’re worried they’re the ones holding the bag on this one.
The finger-pointing will begin in Washington once the Taliban takes over large areas of the country, he added. “‘How did it happen?’ This is largely due to the failure of US military strategy, which is an extension of the failure of US political strategy. But the slope is collapsing and the military will pay the price. Some of these military commanders don’t want to be stuck with this. “
If the United States is forced to launch a more aggressive airstrike campaign in response, Roggio said, there is also the risk of killing more innocent people than if the United States kept troops on the ground. “And it just becomes more fuel for Taliban fire if the United States launches attacks in civilian areas,” he said. “It’s no secret that sometimes Afghans have used US air power to settle personal disputes. So you run the risk of doing so.”
Shaheen spoke in particular of the plight of Afghan women, who were subjected to the Islamic regime of the Taliban. She fears that the gains of the last two decades will be wiped out after the withdrawal of foreign troops.
It also calls for a greater commitment to economic aid and that we seek to continue supporting the Afghan national security forces, that we seek to encourage the UN to speak out about the situation there and the attack. of the Taliban against women.
Unfortunately, “she added,” President Biden was taken a hard hit by the old administration because they made a deal with the Taliban that we should never have signed. It is an agreement that the Taliban did not respect, she added. They have not severed ties with Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups. As we examine the potential for reforming terrorist groups and maintaining the ties between the Taliban and Al Qaeda, it is puzzling to see the potential for terrorist threats emanating once again from Afghanistan.
For the moment, the president does not seem moved. “Joe Biden really, really wants to leave Afghanistan,” Roggio said.
And he has unlikely allies on the Armed Services Committee if the war escalates as a result.
Regarding President Bidens’ approach to Afghanistan, I want to offer sincere and unspoken praise, said Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Republican from Florida and one of the strongest supporters of Trump and critics of the new administration. I am happy that President Biden wants to end the war in Afghanistan.
“And let me be clear: I have no confidence in the functional capacity of the Afghan government because they are deeply corrupt, I have no confidence in the Taliban because they lie and kill,” he said. added. “I also have no confidence that the prolonged deployments of US troops in Afghanistan will solve the central problem in Afghanistan, namely that their government is corrupt, they have not won the love of their constituency and there is no really hungry to rid the country of the Taliban. “
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