Trump is favorite in GOP 2024 primary: poll

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Former President Trump is the clear favorite to win the 2024 Republican presidential nod, despite the swelling national profile of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), according to a new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey released exclusively on The Hill.

In a hypothetical eight-way primary, 48 percent of Republican voters said they would support Trump for the nod, while 28 percent would support DeSantis. While that’s good news for Trump, DeSantis saw a 3-point bump in support from last month.

No other prospective candidate garnered double-digit support in the poll. Former Vice President Mike Pence came in third at 7 percent, while Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley tied for fourth place with just 3 percent support.

The poll is the latest sign that Trump has managed to hold on to a loyal majority of GOP voters, even amid questions about his continued influence in the party and whether it’s time for Republicans to shift to a new generation of leaders.

But DeSantis remains a force to be reckoned with. In a hypothetical Republican field that did not include Trump, DeSantis was the clear front-runner, commanding the support of 49 percent of GOP voters. In that situation, Pence came in a distant second, with just 14 percent support.

Even in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up between Trump and DeSantis, the former president still has the lead. Fifty-five percent of Republican voters said they would support Trump compared to 45 percent who said they would support DeSantis, according to the poll.

To be sure, DeSantis was just sworn in for his second term as Florida governor last month and has yet to make a final decision on a 2024 presidential bid. Trump remains the only candidate in the race for now.

Trump also has the advantage of having served four years in the White House, in addition to his longstanding celebrity status. He has almost universal name recognition, while DeSantis has only appeared on the national stage in the last few years.

Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey, said that while Trump may have the advantage for now, he has overestimated his potential for growth. DeSantis, meanwhile, has shown he has the potential to expand his base of support.

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“Trump has gotten a little stronger but Ron DeSantis continues to get stronger as well,” Penn said. “Trump is ahead but he already has every vote he can get – DeSantis is the candidate of potential.”

The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey was conducted January 18-19 and surveyed 2,050 registered voters. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.

The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.

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